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2011 Trade Forecast Update: Pork Higher; Beef and Broiler Meat Stable

by 5m Editor
18 April 2011, at 12:00am

Production of chicken meat is expected to rise while global trade remains virtually unchanged, according to the latest <em>Livestock and Poultry World Markets and Trade</em> report from USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

Summary

Broiler meat production is forecast to expand on stronger demand and tight supplies of beef and pork in most major producing countries. World trade remains virtually unchanged. Russia’s December announcement of a 38 per cent decline in the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume to 375,000 metric tons resulted in a significant downward revision to its import forecast. Chinese imports are forecast lower as reduced US shipments (as a result of market access issues) more than offsets higher shipments from South America. Brazilian and US exports are revised lower, offsetting larger exports from the EU and China on strong demand from Asian and African markets.

Broiler Meat: 2011 Revised Forecast Overview

World production expands

Russia’s historical data series is revised.

Forecasts for China, Brazil, and the EU are revised upward on rising domestic demand. In China, strong demand has stimulated production enabling producers to raise prices, which helps offset higher feed costs. In Brazil, growing disposable incomes, high beef prices, and strong exports support production expansion. The EU is revised slightly higher to meet slowly growing domestic demand.

The United States forecast is revised higher on heavier bird weights.

Argentina’s production is revised down on slower than anticipated industry expansion.

World trade virtually unchanged

Imports

The December announcement of a reduction in Russia’s TRQ resulted in a significant downward revision in Russia’s expected imports.

Mexico and the Philippines forecasts are raised on strong demand for mechanically deboned meat.

Some African markets are revised higher on strong demand, e.g. Angola, Benin, and South Africa.

The forecast for Saudi Arabia is increased as production gains are unable to keep pace with growing demand.

Japan is raised on increased demand and short-term disruption in production due to the tsunami and earthquake.

EU is revised lower on more stringent regulations.

China’s forecast is revised lower on continued anti-dumping and countervailing duties on US product.

Exports

Greater exports by the EU, China, and Thailand are the result of higher demand from some Asian markets, particularly Japan and Viet Nam. EU shipments are also bolstered by demand from African markets.

Exports from Brazil and Argentina are revised downward but still remain at record levels.

US exports are revised lower primarily on the reduced TRQ in Russia and market access issues in China.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.

April 2011