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Methionine Global Outlook: the Next Decade

by 5m Editor
1 August 2011, at 12:00am

Global protein production will follow global protein consumption, especially poultry and aquaculture, and growth of these segments will consequently drive the consumption of amino acids, particularly methionine, according to Dr Giovanni Gasperoni and Tricia Bentley-Beal of Novus International.

Summary

The demand for protein has risen rapidly over the past 10 years (CAGR 2.0 per cent) and will continue to grow over the next decade (CAGR 1.6 per cent). Poultry will grow at a higher rate than the protein industry as a whole over the next decade, at around two per cent.

The demand for methionine is proportionate to the demand for protein, poultry in particular. As a result, the methionine market will grow at a rate of two per cent or slightly higher over the next decade. The total methionine market is projected to increase from the current size of 685,000-700,000 metric tons (MT) to 870,000-890,000MT by 2018.

Poultry is the most efficient and economical source of protein on Earth. When comparing nutrition strategies, there is no better alternative than the use of synthetic methionine to support poultry’s growth over the next decade.

Market Drivers

The following global factors are the major drivers for protein demand and ultimately, methionine:

  1. Population
  2. Income
  3. Choice
  4. Raw materials
  5. Nutrition
  6. Genetics

Population: increasing

The number of people on earth is rising by 75 million people per year (1.0 per cent CAGR). The majority of this growth is occurring in developing countries where incomes are rising and as a result diets are diversifying. This growth equates to a doubling of the global demand for food by 2050.

Incomes: increasing

The consumption of protein can be correlated to the purchasing power of the population. By 2030, 1.15 billion people will have joined the ranks of the middle class and 90 per cent of these people will live in what are now developing countries.

Choice: increasing

As incomes rise and consumer choice expands, the demand for a broader food portfolio will grow, particularly for proteins such as meat, seafood and dairy products.

Raw materials: more stable; higher price

Agricultural prices are projected to remain above pre-2006 levels during the coming decade as a result of the increasing world demand for grains, oilseeds, livestock products, continuing high energy prices and further growth in biofuels production.

Nutrition: critical to sustainable business

The importance of nutritionally balanced livestock diets becomes very important as producers work toward strategies to maximize the return on investment for feed ingredients and to meet the growing global demand for protein at affordable costs.

Genetics: increasing efficiency

Through the next decade, livestock weights will continue to increase as nutritionally improved and balanced diets are optimised for current and future breeds. Nutritional strategies will reduce the gap between current and potential performance, as geneticists continue to select for more efficient traits.

Conclusion

Global protein production will follow global protein consumption. The fastest growing segments of the protein industry are poultry and aquaculture, due to their production efficiency and accessible price points. Growth of these segments will consequently drive the consumption of amino acids, particularly methionine.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.

August 2011