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Poultry Production to Move Ahead

by 5m Editor
30 June 2010, at 12:00a.m.

After a year of almost stagnant production, world poultry meat output is expected to expand by 2.5 million tonnes (mt) or almost three per cent in 2010 to reach a record near 95mt, writes Terry Evans exclusively for ThePoultrySite.

According to the latest FAO's Food Outlook Report, relatively high feed costs have slowed production growth. But, as feed prices are expected to fall later this year following a global bumper maize crop, it is possible that poultry meat output will exceed the forecast figure.

An expansion in production of some two is forecast for the US, pushing the total for all poultry to around 19.8mt. However, in the European Union the gain is likely to be as small as 0.5 per cent with output at just under 1.2mt.

Continued growth in domestic demand should push output in China towards 16.8mt.


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"The anticipated cut-back in US exports of chicken meat could be as much as 13 per cent."

Production in India, Asia's second largest producer, continues to climb and could come close to 3mt in the next couple of years.

In South America, Brazil could see output exceed the 11mt mark for the first time, while on the export front, Brazil looks likely to hold on to the number one spot shipping almost 4mt compared to the US at 3.4mt.

A large 11 per cent increase is foreseen in the Russian Federation with production climbing to a new 'high' of 2.6mt. This, coupled with a lower import quota for supplies from the US, will likely result in imports contracting to less than 850,000 tonnes. This is why the anticipated cut-back in US exports of chicken meat could be as much as 13 per cent.

China is expected to boost its exports by a significant eight per cent to top a million tonnes, while her imports are also expected to rise to almost 2mt.

According to the report, 'Poultry exports from Thailand, mostly cooked, are anticipated to increase this year by eight per cent to almost 650,000 tonnes in response to a higher demand from Asian countries.'

In Japan, the third largest importer, high stocks will likely limit import growth to less than three per cent at around 820,000 tonnes. A similar percentage increase is envisaged for Mexico, where purchases could rise to some 765,000 tonnes.

As a result of the expected large fall in US exports, the total volume of poultry meat traded this year is not expected to change much from last year's 11.2mt.

Poultry meat production and trade
('000 tonnes carcass weight equivalent)
Production Imports Exports
Region/
country
2009E 2010F 2009E 2010F 2009E 2010F
ASIA 32,243 33,244 5,705 5,741 1,885 2,011
- China 16,148 16,767 1,790 1,857 944 1,018
- India 2,624 2,726 - - 3 3
- Indonesia 1,490 1,540 15 12 - -
- Iran, Islamic Rep. 1,485 1,560 60 55 26 26
- Japan 1,366 1,377 797 820 9 11
- Malaysia 1,075 1,100 45 40 19 22
- Thailand 1,134 1,171 1 1 596 643
- Turkey 1,250 1,260 90 95 117 110
AFRICA 3,852 3,893 1,065 1,067 27 28
- South Africa 1,030 1,030 232 240 20 20
CENTRAL AMERICA 3,914 3,938 1,166 1,187 36 37
- Mexico 2,567 2,570 743 765 11 11
SOUTH AMERICA 15,820 16,396 514 509 4,074 4,370
- Argentina 1,263 1,389 7 7 214 246
- Brazil 10,650 11,055 1 1 3,724 3,984
NORTH AMERICA 20,578 21,048 299 320 4,089 3,570
- Canada 1,202 1,227 204 217 181 187
- US 19,376 19,821 85 92 3,907 3,383
EUROPE 14,873 15,248 2,246 2,122 999 981
- European Union 11,114 11,170 835 847 936 928
- Russian Federation 2,336 2,605 964 848 7 8
- Ukraine 864 900 195 165 19 14
OCEANIA 1,044 1,052 56 58 40 44
- Australia 871 878 4 4 34 37
WORLD 92,325 94,819 11,051 11,004 11,149 11,041
E=estimated, F=forecast
Source:FAO

Further Reading

- You can view our recent series about chicken meat production in Asia, also by Terry Evans, by clicking here.


June 2010