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CME: August Corn Yield Estimate Expected to be High

by 5m Editor
10 August 2009, at 7:20am

US - USDA will release yet another highly anticipated <em>Crop Production report</em> (and the accompanying <em>World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates</em> or WASDE) on 12 August, report Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

The August report is the first of the crop year that uses objective data to predict yields. In addition, USDA has "re-surveyed" many areas regarding corn and soybean acreage following the July Acreage report that surprised almost everyone with the number of estimated corn acres. So, this year’s August report has a bit more intrigue than normal. Results of Dow Jones’ monthly survey of grain market analysts appear in the table below.

Average Range USDA, July 2008
(Billion Bushels)
Corn Crop 12.472 11.792 - 12.814 12.290 12.101
Soybean Crop 3.213 3.000 - 3275 3.260 2.959
Wheat Crop, All 2.150 2.086 - 2.238 2.112 2.500
(Bushels per Acre)
Corn Yield 157.1 153.0 - 160.3 153.4 153.9
Soybean Yield 42.1 40.9 - 43.5 42.6 39.6

As a group, analysts expect the corn yield estimate to be higher than that of July while they expect USDA to reduce the soybean yield slightly. Readers should note that the 153 bushel per acre estimate that marks the bottom of the range of corn yield estimate is perhaps an outlier — the next closest estimate was 155.6 bushels per acre. Analysts also expect USDA to slightly raise its estimate of the 2009 wheat crop.