Establishing a Poultry Feed Cost Range
By the Chicago Board of Trade - Nothing ever changes when it comes to market risk - it will always be there. You don’t have to like it but you do need to manage it. Managing your feed cost price risk can enhance your firm’s bottom line and that’s a key goal for any business.
Market risks include two components, regardless of where
your business operation is located—price and basis. Prices
for feed grains, like corn and soybean meal, are discovered
in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT®) futures markets.
Basis is the relationship between a local cash market (e.g.,
feed supplier) price and the related CBOT futures price.
Futures, options, cash market contracts, or combinations
of these make possible a variety of strategies for managing
the price risk associated with feed costs. The most basic
futures strategy to protect feed costs is the Long Futures
Hedge. This strategy provides protection against rising
prices. The most basic option strategy to protect feed costs
is the Long Call Option Hedge. This strategy is similar
to the futures strategy in that it protects your business
against rising feed prices, but unlike the futures strategy,
it gives you the opportunity to take advantage of falling
feed prices.
You might be asking why everyone wouldn’t choose
options over futures. There are several reasons. Most
importantly, the protection and the opportunity of the
Long Call Option strategy is available at a cost to you—
the premium. Therefore, there are times when the long
futures hedge will out perform the long call option strategy.
This usually occurs when feed prices are rallying and
your price risk is greatest. In this case the futures strategy
will out perform the option strategy by the amount of
premium paid.
When evaluating price risk management strategies, some
business operations may shy away from options because
they feel the option premiums are too costly. If that is
the case, you should be aware of another strategy that
provides the same benefits and opportunities as the
Long Call Option position, but at a lower cost.
Long Call Option/ Short Put Option Hedge.
The benefit of combining a short put position with the
long call position is that the cost of protection against
rising feed prices is reduced by the amount of premium
you collect for selling the put option, thereby lowering
the maximum (ceiling) feed price. The downside to
this strategy is that the short put option position
establishes a minimum (floor) feed price when the
market is declining.
The feed cost price range is determined by the
difference in the strike prices of the call and the put.
Since there are many different strike prices to choose
from, your business operation will be able to choose
the price range that seems optimal given your market
outlook.
Advantages
- Provides price risk management against higher feed costs at a lower cost
- Establishes a price range for feed costs
- Helps with planning and budgeting
- Weaker than expected basis improves the effective feed price
- Contract’s financial integrity guaranteed by the CBOT clearing services provider
- Benefit of falling prices is limited to the floor price of the range
- Short put position requires maintaining a margin account
- Pay the option premium when position is initiated
- Stronger than expected basis increases the effective feed cost
- Short put position may be exercised at any time during the life of the option
- Transaction costs on put and call
Evaluation of the Long Call Short Put Hedge:
Expected Price Range Ceiling =
Call strike price + call premium paid - put premium
received +/- expected basis*
Expected Price Range Floor =
Put strike price + call premium paid - put premium
received +/- expected basis*
*Always include transaction costs in your calculations.
Long Call Short Put Hedge Example: Assumptions
July Corn futures currently trading at $2.60/bushel
Buy (long) July 260 Corn call option for $0.18 (premium)
Sell (short) July 240 Corn put option at $0.10 (premium)
Expected basis is $0.15 over July
Expected Price Range:
Ceiling Price: $2.60 + 0.18 - 0.10 + 0.15 = $2.83
Floor price = $2.40 + 0.18 - 0.10 + 0.15 = $2.63
June 15 Scenario 1: Rising Prices
July Corn Futures $3.20/bu
July 260 Corn call option (premium) 0.60/bu
July 240 Corn put option (premium) 0.00/bu
Basis + 0.15/bu
Local feed corn price (futures + basis) $3.35/bu
Call Option Profit1 -0.42/bu
Put Option Profit2 - 0.10/bu
Effective Feed Purchase Price $2.83/bu
1Buy call at $0.18 and sell (offset) call at $0.60
2Sell put at $0.10 and put expires valueless
June 15 Scenario 2: Falling Prices
July Corn Futures $2.00/bu
July 260 Corn call option (premium) 0.00/bu
July 240 Corn put option (premium) 0.40/bu
Basis + 0.15/bu
Local feed corn price (futures + basis) $2.15/bu
Call Option Loss3 +0.18/bu
Put Option Loss4 + 0.30/bu
Effective Feed Purchase Price $2.63/bu
3Buy call at $0.18 and call expires valueless
4Sell put at $0.10 and put is offset at $0.40
Long Call Short Put Hedge Notes:
As prices moved higher in Scenario 1, the higher local feed
corn price was offset by a gain on the long call and the short
put. Without the hedge, the feed corn price would have been
$0.52/bushel higher at $3.35/bushel. Regardless of how high
the July corn market would have rallied, the $2.83 ceiling
purchase price would be achieved.
In Scenario 2, there were losses on the call and the put
but the effective purchase price still improved because
of the significant decline in the local feed corn prices.
The effective purchase price would improve as the market
declines but the improvement would be limited to the
$2.63 floor.
Summary
The Long Call Short Put hedge is only one of many risk
management strategies available by using CBOT futures
and options on Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Soybean Meal,
Soybean Oil, Oats, and Rice. The flexibility, integrity,
and transparency of the CBOT markets allow the poultry
industry to adjust market risk exposure to any level
deemed comfortable.
For more information on risk management strategies for
the poultry industry, contact your broker or a CBOT Product
Manager at 312-341-7955. For more information on the
Chicago Board of Trade Agricultural Complex, visit
www.cbot.com.
Source: Chicago Board of Trade - July 2005