Based on estimates of population (Table 1) and the supplies of poultry meat available for consumption (Table 2 and Figure 1), the indications are that the uptake per person has increased in all regions including Africa and Oceania.

Clearly, these figures are greatly influenced by the relationship between human population growth and the increase in supplies available for consumption. Thus, while the global average poultry meat uptake per person rose by 2.5kg or some 23 per cent from 11.1kg to 13.6kg between 2000 and 2009, the total volume of poultry meat eaten went up by almost 26.5 million tonnes or nearly 39 per cent from 68.6 million tonnes to 95.1 million tonnes as the global human population increased by 11 per cent from 6.12 billion to 6.82 billion.

Figure 1. Poultry meat supplies (kg/person/year)

Population and Income Growth Boost Consumption in Africa

Looking ahead, globally the human population will expand by a little less than one per cent per year between now and 2030 when it will likely reach 8.3 billion. However the increase in Africa will be at more than double this rate at 2.1 per cent to 1.56 billion. As a result Africa's contribution to the world total will have increased from 15.4 per cent in 2013 to almost 19 per cent by 2030.

Nigeria, the most populated country in Africa, is expected to have around 180 million people by 2015, followed by Ethiopia (92 million), Egypt (88 million), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (75 million), these four accounting for almost 40 per cent of the total.

The range in poultry meat consumption per person is wide around the regional average in 2009 of 5.5kg (Table 3), ranging from as little as 0.2kg in Rwanda to 39.1kg in Gabon.

After population increases, the other key factor stimulating consumption is economic growth. The USDA’s long-term projections highlight the difference between relatively weak growth in developed economies and relatively strong, above-average growth in developing countries. Consequently, developing countries are projected to become a larger part of the world economy.

Gross Domestic Product GDP) worldwide is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.3 per cent over the next decade. For developing countries the corresponding figure is 5.6 per cent, with the USDA anticipating robust economic growth across most developing countries. Hence, consumption is expected to rise rapidly. Increased growth stimulates increased and more varied consumption in low- and middle-income countries.

Over the next decade, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) anticipates that the rise in meat consumption in developing countries will average 2.4 per cent per year compared with 0.9 per cent in developed countries. For poultry meat, uptake is expected to rise by 2.8 per cent per year in developing countries between 2013 and 2022. This is much faster than that for pork (2.2 per cent) and beef (1.9 per cent).

In 2012, poultry meat consumption in South Africa is estimated at a record 36.8kg per person, of which, chicken meat will have accounted for 36.1kg. The rise in uptake is attributed to steady economic growth giving a rise in living standards which has prompted more consumers to purchases higher protein diets and convenience products. Producers, retailers and the food service sector have responded by supplying the market with competitively priced value-added items and convenience products.

Currently, retail sales account for about 50 per cent of total chicken sales followed by wholesale (25 per cent) and food service (15 per cent). In recent years, the latter has grown more rapidly than either the retail or wholesale sectors. This year, slower economic growth is expected to limit the increase in demand for chicken to around three per cent. However, the recent increase in the tariffs on imported chicken will likely result in higher retail prices, which in turn, could dampen the demand from the poorer sectors of the community.

In some African countries, an increase in the demand for chicken in urban areas has stemmed from the imported frozen items being cheaper than the domestic products. Demand has also been stimulated by the rapid growth of the restaurant, hotel and fast-food sectors.

Poultry Meat Consumption Above Average in Oceania

Poultry consumption data for Oceania is sparse (Table 4) but where available the uptake per person is well above the world average.

The regional average is greatly influenced by developments in Australia and, to a lesser extent, New Zealand as the human population of these countries represents around 60 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, of the regional total. As the average uptake in both these countries contracted in 2009 when compared with two years earlier, the average for the region as a whole declined from 37kg to 35.7kg.

Remaining price competitive against substitute meats is the key for future growth in chicken consumption in Australia and uptake is expected to increase by one per cent in 2013-14 to 45kg per person. And in the medium term, ABARES considers that chicken will maintain its position as the most consumed meat with the average uptake per person forecast to rise to 47kg by 2017-18.

November 2013