Compared with a base of 2012-14 total meat production is expected to rise from just under 304 million tonnes to 355 million tonnes, an increase of 51 million tonnes, of which poultry is forecast to account for some 26 million tonnes (51 per cent).

It is envisaged in an OECD/FAO report that developed countries will account for some 9 million tonnes of this increase, but developing countries will produce a further 17 or so million tonnes.

So, the additional consumption of meat during this period will consist mainly of poultry and primarily chicken. However, the report does warn that weaker economic growth for both developed and developing countries could limit consumption growth, but asserts that “Rapid population growth and urbanisation within developing regions remains the core driver to total consumption growth.”

Rising incomes boost the demand for meat, particularly in developing countries where the consumption per person of animal products is less than a third of that in industrial countries.

An FAO perspective covering the period 2015 to 2030 reveals that meat consumption is forecast to rise by 4kg per person from an estimated 41.3kg (carcase weight equivalent) to 45.3kg. However, while the gain in industrial countries will likely be 4.4kg as the average rises from 95.7kg to 100.1kg, in developing countries an increase of 5.1kg is foreseen, the average going up from 31.6kg to 36.7kg.

For poultry meat the world average is expected to rise by 3.7kg from 13.8kg to 17.2kg. Hence, by 2030 poultry meat will account for nearly 40 per cent of meat consumption against 33 per cent today. Among the developing nations average poultry uptake is expected to rise by 3.5kg from 10.5kg to 14kg.

At the outset it must be appreciated that nowhere is actual meat consumption assessed and hence all the data on meat consumption are estimates of the supplies available to be consumed.

Also, in some instances the consumption per person figures are expressed on a carcase weight basis, but in others the data relates to retail weight using for poultry meat a conversion factor of 0.88. Even so the calculations frequently produce different figures according to the source, though in all cases the same trends emerge.

Based on FAO data, world poultry uptake went up by 32 per cent between 2000 and 2011 from 11kg to 14.4kg. During this period the average for the European Union rose by just 2kg per person from 19.6 to 21.7kg.

However, at the same time the average for the whole of Europe increased by nearly 6kg from 15.9 to 21.7kg (Tables 11, 12 and figure 7) underlying how estimated poultry uptake in those European countries outside the EU has increased more rapidly than in those inside the Community.

Ukraine is the prime example here, consumption having leaped from a meagre 4.4kg per person back in 2000 to 23.1kg in 2009, though it then eased back to 22kg in 2012. Since then uptake appears to have stabilised somewhat and, although production is expected to expand this year, the pressure on consumer incomes is such that consumption is unlikely to increase forcing the extra output to be exported.

Another good example is Russia where uptake has more than doubled from only 9.8kg in 2000 to 23.1kg in 2011. According to a USDA report, despite price rises, Russia’s broiler consumption is expected to rise by 4 per cent in 2015 and will continue to do so, due to rising wages and broiler meat being advantageously priced against its red meat competitors.

As a result of this price advantage Russian meat processors are increasingly using poultry as a raw material, a trend which is expected to continue. According to Russia’s National meat Association, by the end of 2015, poultry will account for 46 per cent of total meat consumption. Currently Russia’s consumption is estimated at a little over 29kg per person.

Figure 7. Poultry meat consumption in Europe has overtaken the average for the European Union (kg/person/year)

Within the EU, broiler meat has been less affected than other meats by the economic recession. However, the quantity of poultry consumed per person appears to have stagnated as, although some consumers switched from beef or pork to chicken others, and especially those on low incomes, have reduced their protein purchases and bought more carbohydrate products.

This move has been echoed by a more rapid rise in sales of the cheaper cuts (legs and wings) than for the more expensive breasts or whole birds. According to a USDA Gain Report this trend is likely to continue in the absence of any economic recovery.

Also, in several EU countries such as Germany, France and Poland the switch to broiler meat has been enhanced by a belief that it is a healthier and leaner meat which is more convenient to prepare and cook, a view which is also expressed by the catering and restaurant sectors.

A European Commission report assesses that poultry meat consumption in the EU, expressed in retail weight terms, has risen from 20.8kg per person in 2011 to an estimated 21.8kg in 2015, and as a result of its relative cheapness and healthy image it will continue to grow to reach 22.8kg by 2024, when poultry will have increased its market share of all meats to 35 per cent compared with 33 per cent today.

Nearly all the countries in Europe have recorded major increases in uptake when compared with the year 2000, the exceptions being Hungary and Ireland. However, referring to the period 2009 to 2011, the picture is nowhere near as bright with almost half of the countries recording a decline in the uptake per person.

Regarding the human population, Europe is the only region were a reduction is anticipated (Table 13). Back in 2000 there were 729 million people in Europe representing 11.9 per cent of the global total of 6,126 million.

Although the number has risen to 743 million this year this region’s share of the world total has shrunk to 10.1 per cent. By 2050 population numbers in Europe will have declined further to 709 million or just 7.4 per cent of the global total.

November 2015