Argentina

Argentine poultry exports for 2005 are projected at a record 110,000 metric tons as a result of good returns, the opening of new markets, good sanitary conditions, and stronger demand from existing markets. Chile and Venezuela are markets which are forecast to grow in 2005. Broiler production is also expected to reach a record high of 1 million metric tons because of the strong export demand, and a recovery of the domestic consumption.
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Australia

Argentine poultry exports for 2005 are projected at a record 110,000 metric tons as a result of good returns, the opening of new markets, good sanitary conditions, and stronger demand from existing markets. Chile and Venezuela are markets which are forecast to grow in 2005. Broiler production is also expected to reach a record high of 1 million metric tons because of the strong export demand, and a recovery of the domestic consumption.
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Brazil

Brazilian poultry production is expected to reach another record in 2005 due to continued expansion in exports and a rebound in domestic production because of higher employment rate and more disposable income from consumers. Profit margins are expected to remain firm next year.
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Canada

On August 18, 2004 the Canadian Food Inspection Agency lifted all remaining movement restrictions on birds, bird products and bird by-products in British Columbia’s Fraser Valley and declared an end to the avian influenza response operation which began on February 19, 2004. Exports of U.S. poultry meat to Canada were sharply higher in the first six months of 2004 reflecting the shortfall in Canadian supplies caused by the avian influenza crisis in British Columbia. For 2005, Canadian chicken output is forecast to rebound and show moderate increase while turkey output is expected to remain flat.
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China

Since February 7, 2004, China has banned imported US poultry and products. It still remains uncertain when China will reopen the market. During 2005 China's poultry production is forecast to recover to 9.9 MMT, about equal to the pre-avian influenza 2003 level. Until the Chinese Government permits imports of US poultry, poultry imported from Brazil and Argentina will continue to increase.
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EU-25

With the accession of the 10 New Member States (NMS) in May 2004, the poultry sector in both EU-15 and the NMS is expected to undergo significant changes over the coming years. The 2003 reform of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) does not directly affect the poultry sector, but could have some indirect impact through structural changes in the feed sector, as well as through the implementation of new environmental and animal welfare standards. Production structures in the NMS are fairly well developed, however technical indicators such as feed conversion are typically lower than in the EU-15. Chicken production in Poland and the Czech Republic is growing very fast, as exports to EU-15 countries increase.
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Hong Kong

The Hong Kong government has amended its certification requirements for U.S. chicken feet, effective on April 30, 2005. U.S. exporters may need to adjust production facilities to meet Hong Kong’s new certification requirements. Hong Kong’s ban on U.S. raw chicken imports between February 11, 2004 till April 30, 2004 led to a loss of approximately $35 million, in terms of export value. The total volume of U.S. chicken exports to Hong Kong for 2004 will hinge on when China will lift its poultry ban and whether U.S. suppliers are willing to divert their products to the competitively priced Hong Kong market. Approximately 82 percent of Hong Kong’s imports are re-exported to China.
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India

India's CY 2005 broiler production is forecast to grow by 15 percent to 1.9 million tons due to greater availability of raw feed materials and increased demand for poultry meat caused by higher consumer income. Increasing forward integration in poultry operation, growing farmer preference for birds with higher dressing yield, and price stabilization measures initiated by the industry are also factors supporting production growth, mostly in the southern and western growing belts.
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Indonesia

Due to the impact of the Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak in early 2004, combined with high feed costs, broiler production in 2004 is expected to drop about 15 percent. For 2005, with expectations that feed input prices will decline, and that the AI problem remains in check, broiler meat output is forecast to rebound about 8 percent.
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Japan

Import bans on broiler meat from Thailand and China will likely keep supplies tight in 2005. Brazil is expected to maintain its large market share for broiler meat in 2005, while imports from the U.S. are expected to rebound from an import ban imposed early in 2004. A recovery of cooked poultry imports from Thailand and China is will help to ease tight boiler supplies in 2005.
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Korea

Korea remains one of the few countries that maintain a nationwide ban on imports of U.S. fresh and frozen poultry meat due to avian influenza-related concerns. Korea is considering lifting the ban on U.S. poultry meat now that the United States is free of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Although Brazil may soon be eligible to export limited quantities of poultry meat to Korea, bans on other suppliers will encourage importers to turn to the United States when the ban is lifted.
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Kuwait

In 2005, Kuwait's broiler production is projected at 30,000 MT, with birds mostly marketed live. Frozen chicken imports are forecast at 78,000 MT, including 65,000 MT whole chickens, and 13,000 MT parts. Brazil is expected to continue its dominance of the whole bird, bone-in and boneless parts markets. The U.S. should supply 3,000-4,000 MT frozen leg quarters, mainly for re-export to Iraq, and some bone-in chicken parts.
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Malaysia

The Malaysian poultry scene was faced with various challenges in the past year from grappling with the higher production cost of broilers; to keeping the Malaysian chicken farms free from Avian Influenza; to dealing with the impact on the poultry export market due to the discovery of H5N1 virus strain in a village farm. Best product prospects for US exporters continue to be in supplying day-old chicks, broiler grandparent stock, frozen turkey/turkey parts and frozen chicken parts.
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Mexico

Mexico’s poultry industry is forecast to continue growing during MY 2005 (Jan-Dec), as the trend toward vertical integration in the chicken industry continues. Exports of U.S. poultry and poultry products are forecast to increase as well. Mexico imposed sanitary import restrictions due to Avian Influenza outbreaks in the United States. However, these restrictions have been gradually lifted allowing most U.S. poultry trade to continue unimpeded.
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Philippines

The Philippine poultry industry is likely to expand once again this year, fueled mainly by the growing domestic and regional demand for Philippine chicken meat. The high cost of feed will, however, continue to be a limiting factor in the sector's growth. Consumption of broiler meat is expected to outpace domestic production even with a temporarily weakened demand for chicken during the first quarter of 2004 due to Avian Influenza incidents in most of Asia and parts of Canada and the United States. Imports of broiler meat are forecast to increase in 2004 mainly as a result of the GRP's special chicken importation scheme implemented between June-August, 2004.
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Romania

Heavily hit in the first part of 2004 by unprecedented high feed prices both from domestic sources and the world market, the Romanian poultry industry is expected to recover by the end of the year and further into 2005. Demand for poultry and products maintains its upward trend, despite the recent steady appreciation of domestic prices. U.S. is consolidating its market share in Romania, becoming a stable supplier of relatively low-priced products (frozen broiler leg quarters).
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Russian Federation

Russian poultry production is forecast to expand for an eighth straight year in 2005, as broiler production grows by 13 percent. The poultry import quota and its poor implementation will play a decisive role in 2004 by restricting imports to about 70 percent of the quota level. The Russian import substitution policy and growing demand will continue to push prices significantly higher and simultaneously depress domestic consumption of poultry.
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Saudi Arabia

The Saudi Ministry of Agriculture indicated that the country’s total broiler meat production declined from 525,000 metric tons in 2001 to 467,000 mt in 2002 and 468,000 in 2003 (initial data). Total poultry meat and products imports are estimated to reach 443,000 metric tons next year, an increase of two percent compared to this year’s estimated import level.
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South Africa, Republic of

Broiler production reached 808,000 tons in 2003 but a small decrease in production is foreseen for 2004. This is mainly due to increased import competition brought about by the strong SA rand. The exchange rate, currently about R6.68 to the Dollar after a 2002 average of R10.52 was recorded, is putting pressure on domestic prices, which is influencing expansion plans.
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Taiwan

Taiwan already consumes a large quantity of poultry per capita on an annual basis (est. 32.5kg/capita), with moderate growth from year to year. However, the scheduled elimination of WTO-permitted import quotas in 2005 will abolish tariff rate quotas restrictions on imported chicken meat and offal that have kept imports of these items to well under 10% of annual consumption. Analysts anticipate a 50% rise by 2006 in overall poultry imports over 2003 levels with strong continued growth afterward. The poultry industry in Taiwan is in the process of restructuring to prepare for these changes, largely by shifting away from broiler toward other chicken varieties. High pork prices continue to support relatively high turkey meat imports for use as filler in sausages and other pork-based applications.
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Thailand

The broiler industry is anticipated to grow slightly in 2005 after being hit by High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) disease in 2004. As a result, exports and domestic consumption of broiler meat in 2005 will fall far short of the record high levels reached in 2003.
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Ukraine

Ukraine’s production of poultry products in 2005 will increase considerably, but the local industry will not be able to meet domestic demand, which continues to increase. Demand for poultry imports will persist due to high red meat prices and falling production of livestock products. U.S. exporters of frozen poultry are poised to regain Ukrainian market share because human consumption continues to increase and industrial processors source U.S. product. U.S. imports are facing competition from the European Union and Brazil. Price is often the determining factor.
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United Arab Emirates

UAE poultry producers face significant production hurdles that inhibit their ability to capitalize on opportunities presented in this growing consumer market. Poultry suppliers are reacting to the unsatisfied market demand by importing frozen poultry, at record level in 2003 that does not appear to be waning in 2004 despite health/safety problems internationally.
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Venezuela

Poultry production is expected to increase in 2004 and 2005 after three years of steep declines due to political turmoil. The Government of Venezuela is expected to increase government controlled imports and distribution of frozen poultry from Brazil to 20,000 tons in 2005. to 20,000 tons in 2005.
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