Broiler Meat Production and Trade

This year will likely witness hardly any growth in broiler output worldwide, while for the USA, the world's leading producer, the USDA forecasts a cut of more than half a million tonnes or four per cent to 15.9 million tonnes.

Global exports are expected to slump from last year's record of nearly 8.4 million tonnes to less than 8.0 million tonnes, primarily because of a cutback in purchases by Russia, though Japan is also expected to import significantly less broiler meat than last year.

World production is assessed at just 71.4 million tonnes compared with the latest estimate for 2008 of 71.3 million tonnes.

As indicated earlier, a substantial reduction in production is forecast for the US while in contrast, the upward trend of recent years is expected to continue in both China and Brazil, with output topping 12.1 million tonnes and 11.3 million tonnes, respectively.

For most of the other countries reviewed, this year's broiler meat output is expected to be broadly in line with the 2008 figures.

Globally, broiler meat exports are forecast to fall by half a million tonnes or six per cent this year to 7.9 million tonnes from the latest figure for 2008 of 8.4 million tonnes. Nevertheless, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world's leading exporter with shipments a shade up on last year at 3.3 million tonnes.

US exports are forecast to fall back from last year's record 3.2 million tonnes to around 2.7 million tonnes. Shipments from all the other leading exporters are not expected to match 2008 levels.

The main reason for the reduction in trade is that continued expansion in Russia, which accounted for 15 per cent of the trade last year, will result in imports falling below a million tonnes this year. Japan also seems likely to purchase less. Of note is how purchases by Venezuela have escalated in recent years and could reach 360,000 tonnes in 2009.

Turkey Meat Production and Trade

Turkey meat production in the US and the European Union accounts for some 85 per cent of the world total. With the forecasts for both of these falling short of 2008's, the total this year must decline and at an anticipated 5.14 million tonnes will be similar to 2007.

Not surprisingly total exports are not expected to match 2008 although it is noticeable that continued growth is forecast for Brazil's shipments, which could come close to 250,000 tonnes this year.

On the import side of the trade balance sheet, Mexico continues to be the leading buyer with both the EU and Russia purchasing significantly less than four years ago. However, China appears to be a small but growing market.