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Little Poultry Growth and Fewer Exports in 2009

by 5m Editor
30 June 2009, at 12:00am

The latest USDA forecasts show only small increases in poultry meat production and exports this year, writes Terry Evans for ThePoultrySite.

Broiler Meat Production and Trade

This year will likely witness hardly any growth in broiler output worldwide, while for the USA, the world's leading producer, the USDA forecasts a cut of more than half a million tonnes or four per cent to 15.9 million tonnes.

Global exports are expected to slump from last year's record of nearly 8.4 million tonnes to less than 8.0 million tonnes, primarily because of a cutback in purchases by Russia, though Japan is also expected to import significantly less broiler meat than last year.

World production is assessed at just 71.4 million tonnes compared with the latest estimate for 2008 of 71.3 million tonnes.

As indicated earlier, a substantial reduction in production is forecast for the US while in contrast, the upward trend of recent years is expected to continue in both China and Brazil, with output topping 12.1 million tonnes and 11.3 million tonnes, respectively.

For most of the other countries reviewed, this year's broiler meat output is expected to be broadly in line with the 2008 figures.

Table 1. Broiler meat production in selected countries
('000 tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)
USA 15,870 15,930 16,225 16,561 15,919
China (PR) 10,200 10,350 11,291 11,895 12,133
Brazil 9,350 9,355 10,305 11,033 11,360
EU-27 8,169 7,740 8,320 8,560 8,600
Mexico 2,498 2,592 2,683 2,804 2,795
India 1,900 2,000 2,240 2,490 2,350
Russian Federation 900 1,180 1,350 1,600 1,775
Argentina 1,030 1,200 1,320 1,420 1,430
Iran 1,237 1,327 1,423 1,425 1,425
Japan 1,166 1,258 1,250 1,267 1,260
South Africa 884 946 1,005 1,070 1,112
Other countries 9,837 10,351 10,775 11,124 11,195
TOTAL 63,041 64,229 68,187 71,249 71,354
(p) preliminary; (f) forecast; Chicken paws are excluded
Source: USDA FAS

Globally, broiler meat exports are forecast to fall by half a million tonnes or six per cent this year to 7.9 million tonnes from the latest figure for 2008 of 8.4 million tonnes. Nevertheless, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world's leading exporter with shipments a shade up on last year at 3.3 million tonnes.

US exports are forecast to fall back from last year's record 3.2 million tonnes to around 2.7 million tonnes. Shipments from all the other leading exporters are not expected to match 2008 levels.

The main reason for the reduction in trade is that continued expansion in Russia, which accounted for 15 per cent of the trade last year, will result in imports falling below a million tonnes this year. Japan also seems likely to purchase less. Of note is how purchases by Venezuela have escalated in recent years and could reach 360,000 tonnes in 2009.

Table 2. Broiler meat exports in selected countries
('000 tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)
Brazil 2,739 2,502 2,922 3,242 3,306
USA 2,360 2,361 2,678 3,158 2,744
EU-27 696 690 635 740 685
China (PR) 331 322 358 285 215
Thailand 240 261 296 383 360
Argentina 92 94 125 164 150
Canada 102 110 139 152 125
Kuwait 97 38 60 70 70
Chile 60 64 39 63 65
UAE 20 10 30 30 30
Australia 18 16 25 27 28
Others 73 88 75 82 80
TOTAL 6,828 6,556 7,382 8,396 7,858
(p) preliminary; (f) forecast
Trade between EU member countries is excluded; Chicken paws are excluded
Source: USDA FAS


Table 3. Broiler meat imports in selected countries
('000 tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)
Russian Federation 1225 1189 1222 1159 980
EU-27 609 605 673 677 680
Japan 748 716 696 737 670
Saudi Arabia 484 423 470 510 510
Mexico 374 430 393 447 470
China (PR) 219 343 482 399 425
Venezuela 104 124 163 352 360
UAE 167 182 238 289 290
Vietnam 6 42 164 248 260
Hong Kong 222 243 215 236 245
USA 15 21 28 35 36
Others 1,950 1,967 2,281 2,643 2,629
TOTAL 6,123 6,285 7,025 7,732 7,555
(p) preliminary; (f) forecast
Trade between EU member countries is excluded; Chicken paws are excluded
Source: USDA FAS

Turkey Meat Production and Trade

Turkey meat production in the US and the European Union accounts for some 85 per cent of the world total. With the forecasts for both of these falling short of 2008's, the total this year must decline and at an anticipated 5.14 million tonnes will be similar to 2007.

Not surprisingly total exports are not expected to match 2008 although it is noticeable that continued growth is forecast for Brazil's shipments, which could come close to 250,000 tonnes this year.

On the import side of the trade balance sheet, Mexico continues to be the leading buyer with both the EU and Russia purchasing significantly less than four years ago. However, China appears to be a small but growing market.

Table 4. Turkey meat production in selected countries
('000 tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)
USA 2,464 2,543 2,664 2,796 2,596
EU-27 1,919 1,858 1,790 1,760 1,750
Brazil 360 353 458 510 550
Canada 155 163 169 172 172
Russian Federation 17 19 25 35 40
Mexico 14 14 15 15 16
South Africa 5 5 7 7 7
China (PR) 4 4 5 5 5
Others 4 4 4 (nf) (nf)
TOTAL 4,942 4,963 5,137 5,300 5,136
(p) preliminary; (f) forecast; (nf) no figure
Source: USDA FAS


Table 5. Turkey meat exports in selected countries
('000 tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)
USA 258 248 248 307 259
Brazil 161 156 177 215 240
EU-27 159 130 124 125 120
Canada 24 27 27 27 28
Mexico 2 3 4 4 4
TOTAL 604 564 580 678 651
(p) preliminary; (f) forecast
Trade between EU member countries is excluded
Source: USDA FAS


Table 6. Turkey meat imports in selected countries
('000 tonnes ready-to-cook equivalent)
2005 2006 2007 2008 (p) 2009 (f)
Mexico 185 189 202 207 211
EU-27 128 113 103 115 120
Russian Federation 107 91 75 80 80
China (PR) 12 17 30 50 60
South Africa 25 34 40 25 25
Canada 12 9 9 12 13
USA 3 5 4 4 5
Others 18 19 19 (nf) (nf)
TOTAL 490 477 482 493 514
(p) preliminary; (f) forecast; (nf) no figure
Trade between EU member countries is excluded
Source: USDA FAS


June 2009