Rabobank presents short & long term outlook at IPC
Nan-Dirk Mulder presented to a record crowd in Buenos Aires, Argentina
4 June 2024
2 minute read
By: Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior global specialist animal protein at Rabobank, spoke recently at the IPC Global Poultry Conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina about the short and long term outlook for global poultry markets.
Mulder said the short term conditions are quite strong with many markets now operating in profitable conditions.
"We expect most global markets to stay relatively strong in 2024 and 2025. The poultry industry currently has a strong competitive position in times of price driven consumer behavior," he said. "Input costs are now lower but still at historically high levels and there is price support from stronger prices for competitive proteins like pork and beef, while the poultry supply in most markets is relatively tight. Avian influenza and the El Niño impact in the Southern Hemisphere is having a significant impact on production in Southern Asia and Africa."
Trade will also stay strong but will be impacted by distribution challenges due to turmoil in the Middle East.
In the longer term, the outlook will remain strong with an expected 26% growth for poultry production in the next decade. 90% of the growth will be in emerging markets, especially Asia, Latin America and Africa, according to Mulder.
"Geopolitical tensions will have a big impact on global investment flows whereby food and resource security will become a global higher priority. In this context, we expect a further shift from global to local focus with faster growth in local poultry production then in export platforms like Brazil, the US or Thailand. This will accelerate globalisation of the industry as companies need to invest near their sales markets to access growth." he noted. "It will mean a further shift to more modern value chains with a higher emphasis on smart production systems and higher emphasis on sustainability requirements."
