18 April 2025

16 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Europe

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 17,500 MT for 2025 were up 47 percent from the previous week and 78 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (7,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Mexico (2,100 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (900 MT). Exports of 14,600 MT were down 3 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,600 MT), Japan (3,500 MT), China (1,400 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 20,500 MT for 2025 were down 14 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (7,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (3,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (2,300 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT), Colombia (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 30,900 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,100 MT), South Korea (5,300 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), China (2,900 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).

China’s Q1 pork output rises 1.2%

China’s pork output rose 1.2% from year-ago in the first quarter to 16.02 MMT. A total of 194.76 million hogs were slaughtered from January to March, a 0.1% increase from the same period last year. Typically, pork output rises in the first quarter due to increased hog slaughter ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. But the sector remains under pressure, with oversupply and slow demand continuing to weigh on prices and profits. Authorities have taken steps to curb oversupply, as Beijing in 2024 lowered the national target for normal retention of breeding sows to 39 million head from 41 million.

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: April 2025

Summary

Beef/Cattle: The 2025 beef production outlook is raised by 15 million pounds from last month to 26.700 billion pounds. Projections for cattle prices are higher as slaughter steer prices are raised to $205.51 per hundredweight (cwt) and feeder steer prices are raised to $281.03 per cwt. Beef import and export forecasts are lowered to 4.860 billion pounds and 2.685 billion pounds, respectively.

Dairy: The 2025 milk production forecast is increased to 226.9 (+0.7) billion pounds due to higher expected cow numbers (+25,000) and anticipated improved milk yield per cow (+10 pounds). Dairy product price forecasts are adjusted lower from last month's forecasts, including Cheddar cheese $1.790 (-2.0 cents), dry whey $0.510 (-1.50 cents), butter $2.445 (-7.0 cents), and non-fat dry milk (NDM) $1.22 (-3.5 cents). With lower price forecasts across main dairy products, the forecasts for Class III and IV milk prices are also revised downward from the previous projections to $17.60 (-$0.35) and $18.20 (-$0.60) per hundredweight (cwt), respectively. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $21.10 per cwt, down $0.50 from last month's forecast.

Pork/Hogs: Information from the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published in March supports a moderate reduction in 2025 pork production. Total 2025 pork production is forecast at 28.1 billion pounds, down about 350 million pounds (1.2 percent) from the previous forecast in March. Prices of 2025 live equivalent 51–52 percent lean hogs are expected to average $61.14 per hundredweight, about 1 percent below average prices in 2024. While domestic pork demand remains robust, trade-related uncertainty on world markets is projected to pare down 2025 pork exports to about 7 billion pounds, about 2 percent below exports last year.

Poultry/Eggs: Projected broiler production in 2025 is adjusted up reflecting heavier weights and favorable margins, but projected broiler exports are lowered. Broiler prices are adjusted up in 2025 on recent price data and healthy demand. Projected table egg production is adjusted down on recent flock losses; egg and egg product imports are projected to increase while exports are projected to decrease from 2024. Projected egg prices in 2025 are adjusted down on recent price trends. Projected turkey meat production and exports are adjusted down on recent data, while prices are adjusted higher.

Dairy Forecasts for 2025

The 2025 dairy herd size forecast is 9.405 million head, which is 25,000 head higher than the previous month's projection. An anticipated higher milk yield per cow throughout the year has led to an increase of 10 pounds per cow, which is now forecast at 24,130 pounds per head. Consequently, the revised milk production forecast for 2025 is 226.9 billion pounds, an increase of 0.7 billion pounds from the previous month's estimate and 1.0 billion pounds higher than 2024. Dairy import forecasts were adjusted lower from last month's forecast mainly due to the imposition of additional duties on imported dairy products. On a milk-fat basis, dairy import projections in 2025 were lowered to 8.5 billion pounds (-0.4 billion), while on a skim-solids basis imports were lowered to 6.7 billion pounds (-0.3 billion). Notably, lower expected import volumes of cheese, butter, and infant formula are anticipated for 2025. The 2025 dairy export forecast changes are mixed from the previous forecast. The milk-fat basis forecast has been raised by 0.1 billion pounds to 11.8 billion as shipments of butter, whole milk powder, and cream are expected to increase.

Conversely, on a skim-solids basis, the export forecast was lowered to 44.6 billion pounds (-2.9 billion) as shipment decreases are anticipated for dry skim milk, dry whey products, and lactose. Stocks are expected to be higher than the previous month's forecast in 2025. By the end of the year, ending stocks are projected to increase by 0.2 billion pounds on a fat basis, and by 0.3 billion pounds on a skim-solids basis. While domestic use for 2025 is unchanged from last month's forecast at 223.1 billion pounds on a milk-fat basis, the domestic use forecast on a skim-solids basis was raised by 3.0 billion pounds to 187.3 billion pounds. Based on recent lower price trends, the adjusted forecasts, in dollars per pound for dairy products, are as follows: Cheddar cheese $1.790 (-2.0 cents), dry whey $0.510 (-1.50 cents), butter $2.445 (-7.0 cents), and NDM $1.220 (-3.5 cents). With lower cheese and dry whey prices, the new forecast for Class III milk is $17.60 per hundredweight, $0.35 lower than the previous forecast. With lower butter and NDM price projections, the Class IV price forecast has been lowered to $18.20 per hundredweight, $0.60 lower than the previous projection. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $21.10 per hundredweight, down $0.50 from last month's forecast.

Pork market

March Hogs and Pigs Report Shows Largely Static Pork Sector

Estimated federally inspected (FI) hog slaughter for the first quarter of 2025 finished out at 31.9 million head, 2.3 percent below numbers of a year earlier. The June–August 2024 pig crop, fractionally smaller than June–August 2023 numbers, supplied most of the hogs for first-quarter 2025 processing. The comparatively large year-over-year reduction in FI slaughter numbers may, in part, be attributed to reports of disease in some large operations in key producing Midwestern States.

The estimated FI first-quarter pork production was about 6.9 billion pounds, 2 percent lower than a year ago, with slightly heavier estimated average dressed weights offsetting a marginal amount of the effects of lower animal numbers. First-quarter prices of live equivalent 51–52 percent hogs averaged $62.57 per hundredweight, almost 14 percent higher than during the same period last year. Lower supplies of slaughter-ready hogs, and higher prices of all proteins contributed to higher hog prices in the first quarter. Commercial pork production in the second quarter is lowered 125 million pounds to about 6.8 billion pounds. The reduction is due largely to downward revisions to lighter weight categories of the September hog inventory, published in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, 2025.

The current forecast for second-quarter 2025 production is almost 1 percent higher than in the same-period last year. Last month’s forecast—before publication of the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report—showed second-quarter pork production up 2.4 percent compared with a year earlier. Second-quarter hog prices are likely to average $63 per hundredweight, almost 4 percent lower than a year earlier. The December–February5 pig crop will supply most of the finished hogs for processing in the third quarter of 2025. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs reported December–February farrowings of 2.892 million head, down about 1.3 percent from a year earlier, with a litter rate of 11.65 pigs per litter, yielding a pig crop of 33.7 million head, about equal with a year earlier. Third-quarter commercial pork production is forecast at 6.9 billion pounds, 2.2 percent greater than the same production period in 2024, largely due to higher expected slaughter levels and heavier expected dressed weights than the previous year. Live equivalent prices of 51–52 percent lean hogs are forecast to average $65 per hundredweight during the third quarter of 2025, more than 2 percent greater than a year earlier.

The March Hogs and Pigs report published a second set of producers’ farrowing intentions for the March–May production quarter. If producers follow through on their stated intentions, 2.913 million sows will farrow, a number fractionally lower than a year earlier. Moderate growth in litter rates would yield a March–May pig crop of less than 1 percent larger, year-over-year. Fourth quarter commercial pork production is expected to reach 7.45 billion pounds, about 3 percent above production during the same period in 2024. Hog prices in the fourth quarter are forecast at $54 per hundredweight, almost 13 percent lower than prices in the fourth quarter of 2024. Revisions and new information supplied by the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report point to a total of 2025 commercial pork production of 28.1 billion pounds, a decrease of about 350 million pounds, about 1.2 percent below last month’s annual forecast. For the year, live equivalent prices of 51-52 percent lean hogs are expected to average $61.14 per hundredweight, down from $61.56 per hundredweight in 2024, a reduction of nearly 1 percent. Pork Exports Year-Over-Year Lower in February U.S. pork exports in February were 5 percent lower than a year ago, at 565 million pounds. Weakness was dispersed across most major foreign markets in the Western Hemisphere: Mexico (-2 percent), Canada (-6 percent), and Colombia (-9 percent); Asia: Japan (-19 percent) and South Korea (-14 percent); and Australia (-12 percent). Shipments to China and Hong Kong, Honduras, and Guatemala were year-over-year higher.

2025 Broiler Production Adjusted Up; Exports Lowered

US broiler production totaled 3,619 million pounds in February, down 3.3 percent from February 2024. While average weights were up 1.4 percent year over year, February slaughter totaled 727.7 million birds, down 4.6 percent year over year. This is partially explained by one fewer slaughter day in February 2025 than in the same month in 2024. Broiler slaughter per day in February was virtually unchanged year over year. Preliminary weekly slaughter data for March indicates stronger broiler slaughter. Estimated broiler production for the first quarter is unchanged at 11,700 million pounds. For the second quarter, projected production is also unchanged at 11,850 million pounds. In the second half of the year, improved margins—lower corn and soybean meal prices and slightly higher broiler prices—are expected to encourage increased broiler production.

The third-quarter projection is increased by 25 million pounds to 12,150 million pounds, and the fourth-quarter projection is increased by 50 million pounds to 12,075 million pounds. In total, 2025 broiler production is increased 75 million pounds to 47,775 million pounds. This would be an increase of 1.7 percent over the 2024 total. Reflecting recent cold storage data, as well as increased production expectations, the 2025 ending stocks projection for broiler meat was adjusted up 10 million pounds to 770 million pounds.

Placements expected to rise in USDA monthly Cattle on Feed Report

Analysts polled by Urner Barry expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon to show the April 1 feedlot inventory declined 1.7% from year-ago. A focal point will be placements, which are expected to have risen 3.7% from year-ago levels, due largely to the small number of cattle moved into feedlots in March 2024. While the U.S. reopened the border to Mexican cattle imports earlier this year, resumption of trade has been gradual. Marketings are anticipated to have increased 0.7%.

Germany declared free of FMD

Germany has been certified as free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) by the World Organization for Animal Health, the country’s ag ministry said. The status of being free of the disease had been reinstated for most of Germany except the containment zone in mid-March.

China’s meat imports rise in March

China imported 550,000 MT of meat during March, up 14.2% from February. Through the first three months of this year, China imported 1.65 MMT of meat, down 2.0% from the same period last year.

US Senators push USDA to expand bird flu strategy to cover turkeys, dairy cows

US Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) are calling on USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to broaden the USDA’s response to the avian flu crisis, emphasizing the unique challenges facing the turkey and dairy industries amid what experts are calling the largest animal disease outbreak in U.S. history. In a bipartisan letter, the senators acknowledged USDA’s February 2025 strategic plan as a good starting point, but warned it falls short in addressing the specific needs of turkey farmers and dairy producers. They pressed for:

• Enhanced biosecurity protocols customized for poultry and dairy operations
• Accelerated vaccine development and approval, particularly for dairy cattle
• Clear trade frameworks to prevent international barriers due to vaccine use
• Timelines for coverage of turkey and dairy sectors in USDA’s strategy

The push follows the 2024 emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy cattle — an unprecedented cross-species jump. The virus has now been confirmed in nearly 1,000 dairy herds across 17 states and has affected more than 18.6 million turkeys.

The senators urged USDA to update Congress on how it plans to integrate these concerns and prevent further devastation. The outbreak has not only battered producers but also contributed to sharp price increases in eggs, dairy, and poultry products.

Weekly USDA dairy report, including global overview

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (4/11) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.3475. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.3205 (-0.0085). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8050 and 40# blocks at $1.7450. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7585 (+0.0980) and blocks $1.7130 (+0.1050). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1675. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1605 (-0.0060). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.4650. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.4830 (-0.0105).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic retail butter demand is steady for the most part. Domestic food service demand continues to be lighter in comparison to domestic retail demand. Export demand is steady. Cream volumes are generally more than ample for butter manufacturers. Spot cream demand is mixed as some butter manufacturers convey prices are more than what they are willing to pay. Production schedules vary from steady to strong. Some butter producers note tight unsalted butter spot load availability. Bulk butter overages range from 5 cents below to 6 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts in the East region share strong milk availability is allowing cheese processors to operate at or near capacity. Contacts continue to note cheese demand and sales are slower than earlier in the year but up from this time last year. Cheesemakers in the Central region relay holiday orders have either been prepared or have already shipped and demand is trending steady to quieter. Cheese production schedules are strong as spot milk prices continue to decrease. Spot milk prices range from $5 to $1 under Class III. Contacts in the West region also share some lower spot milk prices. Cheese plant managers share steady to stronger cheese production activity. Contacts share stocks of some cheese varieties remain tighter than others.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production across much of the country is continuing to strengthen toward spring flush levels. That said, southern parts of the country are at or sliding past the apex for the year. Some California dairy farmers indicated the peak of their seasonally higher milk production has taken place. Class I demand is mixed with spring breaks at various stages of completion and school milk bottling lines refilling. As some new cheese plants run more active schedules, milk handlers are seeing more Class III demand in pockets of the country. That said spot milk is still generally available. Central spot milk prices ranged from $5-under to $1-under Class III, while a few West contacts report spot sales above Class prices. Cream is widely available, but demand is mixed. Cream multiples for all Classes are 1.00 – 1.20 in the East, 0.98 – 1.15 in the Central region, and 0.90 – 1.10 in the West. Condensed skim milk is widely available, with some deals possibly clearing below published prices.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices moved lower in the Central and East, while West region prices were mixed. Demand has been somewhat steady in NDM markets, although the same cannot be said of other dry dairy ingredients markets. Dry buttermilk prices were lower in the Central/East, while holding steady in the West. Dry whole milk prices moved higher due to lighter processing activity. Dry whey markets are meeting some turbulence. Prices throughout the country were mixed, but processors say demand has ebbed with uncertainty in the global trade realm. Whey protein concentrate (WPC) 34% prices were mixed on lighter demand. Lactose prices were steady to lower. Acid and rennet casein prices were steady this week.

EUROPE: The UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) released data showing daily milk deliveries for the week ending March 29 averaged at 36.79 million liters, up 1.9 percent from the week prior and up 3.8 percent from the same week last year.

EAST EUROPE: Additional cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) have been confirmed in both Slovakia and Hungary. One of the outbreaks in Slovakia occurred near the Austrian border. Austrian authorities have closed several crossings along its borders with Hungary and Slovakia to curb potential spread of FMD. The United Kingdom has banned imports of cattle, pigs, sheep, and deer from Austria.

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: The March 2025 Production Inputs Monitor from Dairy Australia was recently released. The report noted temperatures remained above average in dairying regions last month. Rainfall was heavy in the north, while dry conditions persisted in the south during March. Water storage levels were down from the prior month and a year earlier during March. Dry conditions have contributed to strong demand for feed and hay. Sales of cull cows increased during March.

NEW ZEALAND: A group in New Zealand, which forecasts dairy prices, increased the forecasted milk price for the 2024/2025 season, following GDT event 377, by 3 cents, to $10.10/kgMS. The spot value of milk increased by 6 cents to $11.29/kgMS. The group noted milk powder and milk fat prices appear firm through the end of the 2024/2025 season. The group stated prices declined at GDT event 377, but prices remain near record highs amid strong demand. The forecasted milk price for the 2025/2026 season decreased by 1 cent to $10.15/ kgMS.

SOUTH AMERICA: The late summer and early fall have brought steady to seasonally strong milk yields throughout the key dairy producing countries in the region. Contacts in the region say milk yields are stronger this year than in a number of previous years. Last year during this time, Argentina and Uruguay were contending with environmental situations from dryness to flooding, while this year's climactic challenges have been minimal at worst. Feed availability is stable and feed costs are generally affordable for farmers in the region.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Total conventional dairy advertisements decreased by 4 percent while total organic dairy ads increased by 35 percent. Conventional butter in one-pound packages was the most advertised dairy product, with a weighted average advertised price of $4.19, down from $4.56 the week before. Shredded cheese in 6-8-ounce packages was the most advertised conventional cheese item, with a weighted average advertised price of $2.25, down from $2.49 the week prior. Half gallon containers of conventional milk had a weighted average advertised price of $2.47, up from $2.42 last week.