20 December 2024

13 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

California declares emergency over H5N1 situation

California declared a state of emergency over the H5N1 virus as it spread more widely in dairy herds and after it has infected dozens of farm workers. The declaration aims to streamline and expedite the state’s response by allowing more flexibility for staffing, contracting and other rules, Gov. Gavin Newsome said. Four southern California dairies tested positive on Dec. 12, “necessitating a shift from regional containment to statewide monitoring and response,” Newsom said in his emergency declaration. Earlier cases had been centered in the Central Valley in the middle of the state. In California, the top U.S. milk-producing state, 649 herds have tested positive since late August, roughly 60% of its herds.

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 7,200 MT for 2024 were down 35 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (2,200 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Japan (1,200 MT, including decreases of 1,000 MT), Taiwan (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (600 MT), and China (600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (100 MT). Net sales of 4,400 MT for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (1,100 MT), South Korea (1,000 MT), Japan (500 MT), Canada (500 MT), and China (500 MT). Exports of 15,900 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,400 MT), Japan (3,200 MT), China (2,800 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,400 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 11,200 MT for 2024 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (2,800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (2,300 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Canada (2,100 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and China (900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (100 MT) and Hong Kong (100 MT). Net sales of 5,800 MT for 2025 primarily for South Korea (2,100 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Japan (500 MT), and Canada (400 MT), were offset by reductions for China (900 MT). Exports of 31,600 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,800 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT), China (3,100 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).

USDA imposes restrictions on animal commodities from El Salvador amid New World Screwworm threat

On Dec. 10, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) enacted strict restrictions on animal commodities from El Salvador after detecting New World screwworm (NWS) in cattle. This measure aims to safeguard U.S. livestock and wildlife from the significant threat posed by NWS infestation. Restrictions apply to animal commodities from or transiting through El Salvador. Prohibited Items: Live ruminants, swine, and their germplasm.

Background. NWS detections in Central America and southern Mexico in late 2024 heightened concerns about the pest's spread. NWS, a serious threat to livestock and wildlife, causes painful infestations with severe economic implications. The U.S. livestock industry benefits significantly from past eradication efforts, saving approximately $900 million annually.

USDA expands efforts to combat Listeria in food processing

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) unveiled new initiatives to tackle Listeria contamination in food products. Key actions include expanding Listeria testing starting in 2025 for ready-to-eat products, environmental samples, and food contact surfaces, while improving sanitation oversight. FSIS will enhance training for inspectors, update guidelines, and strengthen state inspection agreements. A priority will be Food Safety Assessments at ready-to-eat meat and poultry facilities that rely solely on sanitation measures. Weekly inspections will address Listeria-related risks, with further actions depending on funding availability. These measures aim to bolster public safety through a science-driven approach.

China’s pork imports double in November but still below year-ago

China imported 180,000 MT of pork in November, double the amount it brought in during the previous month but still 3.4% less than last year. Through the first 11 months of this year, China imported 2.09 MMT of pork, down 17.4% from the same period last year.

Iowa, Michigan report HPAI outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks

Iowa’s Department of Agriculture reported three more outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry, including a layer flock in Sioux County, a turkey flock in Worth County and a backyard mixed species flock in Monona County. Iowa has reported eight recent HPAI outbreaks. Michigan reported an HPAI outbreak in a commercial poultry flock in Ottawa County, the state’s first case in poultry since May.

USDA delays Mexican cattle imports until 2025 amid screwworm control efforts

Despite earlier speculation, USDA clarified Friday that Mexican cattle imports under new protocols won't resume until early 2025. USDA Undersecretary Jenny Lester Moffitt initially suggested inspections "before the holidays," but Chief Veterinary Officer Dr. Rosemary Sifford later confirmed shipments will start incrementally after the New Year. USDA issued a statement that no cattle were likely to come into the U.S. via the new protocols until early in 2025. "Shipments will likely resume incrementally after the New Year, with full resumption of live animal movements sometime after that," Dr. Sifford said in a statement. "While the United States continues to work very closely with Mexico and has agreed to protocols, it will take some time to implement these due to multiple steps needed to resume trade.”

USDA expands electronic identification (EID) tag program for livestock in FY 2025

• USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is distributing an additional 3 million electronic identification (EID) tags to states in fiscal year 2025, following the 8 million tags provided in 2024. This effort supports a nationwide traceability program aimed at improving the tracking of livestock and enhancing responses to disease outbreaks.
  
  Mandated animals:
  • Sexually intact cattle and bison (18+ months)
  • Dairy cattle of all ages
  • Cattle and bison used for rodeos, shows, and exhibitions
  
  Both visually and electronically readable ear tags are required for interstate movement.
  
  Since 2020, APHIS has provided free EID tags to encourage adoption. The system supports:
  • Disease management: Rapid tracing of sick/exposed animals to minimize economic losses.
  • Trade protection: Establishing disease-free zones to maintain domestic and international market access.
  • Data integration: Enhancing collaboration among federal, state, and industry stakeholders.
  
  Of note: While Congress allocated $15 million for the program in 2024, some states, like North Dakota, reported tag shortages. The additional tags for 2025 aim to alleviate these gaps, though producers may need to source tags independently if supplies are depleted.

Avian flu resurgence in Iowa: wild birds and poultry flocks impacted

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) on Friday reported a sharp rise in avian influenza cases among wild birds after nearly a year without detections. This resurgence coincides with outbreaks in commercial poultry operations in Sioux, Palo Alto, and Sac counties, where over 6 million chickens and 76,000 turkeys face depopulation. While no direct link between wild and domestic cases has been confirmed, further genetic analysis may provide clarity. Hunters and the public are urged to avoid sick birds, report unusual deaths, and practice caution to prevent disease spread.

Of note: The Iowa Department of Agriculture and USDA announced a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial layer flock in O’Brien County. This is Iowa’s eighth detection of HPAI within poultry in 2024 and the fifth in the past week.

USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: December 2024

Summary Beef/Cattle: Forecasts this month reflect the recent discovery of New World Screwworm in cattle in Mexico and the subsequent U.S. import ban on cattle from or transiting Mexico. The ban is assumed to remain in place until the policy changes, which is anticipated to limit available slaughter cattle starting in second-quarter 2025. As a result of lower expected slaughter next year, the 2025 beef production forecast is lowered 615 million pounds from last month to 25.665 billion pounds. The 2025 outlook for feeder and slaughter cattle prices is raised on fewer cattle available for placement and consequently fewer slaughter cattle available later in 2025. Next year’s slaughter steer prices are forecast to increase over 2 percent year over year, while feeder steers are forecast to increase 8 percent. Beef imports in fourth-quarter 2024 are raised on October trade data and weekly import inspections. In 2025, the import forecast is raised on less domestic supply available to meet demand. Beef exports are unchanged from last month in fourth-quarter 2024, but the 2025 forecast is lowered from last month on fewer available exportable supplies.

Dairy: Milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised upward, driven by an expected increase in the number of dairy cows, partially offset by slower growth in milk yield per cow. Domestic dairy use is projected to increase for the remainder of 2024 and throughout 2025. Lower expected cheese prices, more than offsetting higher dry whey prices, have led to a decrease in the 2024 Class III milk price forecast to $18.90 per hundredweight (cwt). Unchanged NDM prices and lower butter prices have kept the 2024 Class IV milk price forecast unchanged at $20.75 per cwt. Consequently, the 2024 all-milk price forecast has been lowered to $22.65 per cwt. Adjusted 2025 price forecasts include: Cheddar cheese $1.800 (-9.5 cents), NDM $1.300 (+4.0 cents), dry whey $0.595 (+7.5 cents), and butter $2.685 (-7.0 cents). These price adjustments have led to a decrease in the 2025 Class III milk price forecast to $18.80 per cwt and an increase in the 2025 Class IV milk price forecast to $20.40 per cwt. The 2025 all-milk price forecast has been lowered to $22.55 per cwt.

Pork/Hogs: Processor spreads dropped in November as pork product prices declined more rapidly than hog product prices. It is notable, however, that both fourth-quarter hog prices and wholesale pork prices are expected to remain above year-earlier price levels due to fewer numbers of slaughter-ready hogs than anticipated, supporting wholesale pork prices thus far in the fourth quarter. Fourth-quarter hog prices are raised to $62 per cwt, almost 16 percent above prices a year ago, while pork production is lowered slightly to 7.24 billion pounds, still about 1 percent higher than fourth-quarter 2023 pork production. October pork exports were almost 2 percent higher than a year earlier, but weakness in shipments to Mexico weighed on the total October export volume. The fourth-quarter export forecast is lowered 35 million pounds to 1.875 billion pounds due to expectations of higher U.S. hog and pork prices for the balance of 2024.

Poultry/Eggs: Projected 2025 broiler production was adjusted up on recent hatch data. Broiler export projections in 2024 and 2025 were adjusted up on strong shipments to Mexico. Annual average broiler price projections are unchanged from last month. Projected table egg production is adjusted down in 2024 and 2025 on lower lay rates and the impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on the size of the flock. Projected egg prices are adjusted up on recent data and lowered production expectations. Egg and egg product export projections were adjusted down on tight supplies and high prices. Projected 2024 turkey production was adjusted up on the strength of October production but projected 2025 production was adjusted down, reflecting recent placement data and losses due to HPAI. Turkey import and export expectations are unchanged from last month, while projected turkey prices are adjusted up slightly in 2024 and 2025 based on recent price data.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (12/13) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.4650. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5155 (-0.0130). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7275 and 40# blocks at $1.8000. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7020 (+0.0510) and blocks $1.7595 (+0.0850). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3775. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.3815 (-0.0010). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7925. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7510 (+0.0375).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Butter demand is mixed throughout the country. Butter makers indicate demand varies from slightly down to stronger in terms of year-over-year numbers. Cream volumes are widely available across most of the nation. A few stakeholders convey finding homes for excess cream is challenging. Retail butter production paces vary from steady to stronger, while bulk butter production paces are more mixed. In some cases, manufacturers indicate lower milk production and/or stronger retail butter demand has contributed to lighter bulk butter production. Bulk butter overages range from minus 3 to 6 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese manufacturing schedules range from steady to stronger throughout the U.S. In the East region, cheesemakers are running steady to stronger production schedules. Despite strong demands, inventories remain comfortable. Demand for cheddar and mozzarella is notably strong. Cheese manufacturers in the Central region share milk availability is increasing. Spot milk volumes were reported at $3 below Class III to $2.50 above. Demand is mixed. Some barrel makers share they have extra loads for sale. In the West region, cheese production is steady. Contacts share spot demand is mixed. Inventories for some cheese varieties are tighter than others.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: In general, across the nation, milk production is showing a seasonal incline. However, in parts of the West and Central regions, farmers are reporting flat production. Protein and milkfat component levels are much higher year over year. Class I demand is holding steady, while demand from Class III is stronger in the East and Central regions. Although a few cheesemakers say milk offers have quieted, some plant downtime in the Central region has opened up spot milk availability. Reported spot prices ranged from $3-under Class III to $2.50 over Class. Demand for milk in the West is mixed. Western Class I and III demands are steady to stronger, while Class II and IV demands are steady. Cream loads are readily available in all regions. Most contacts expect availability to be high into early 2025. Some sellers in the West say it is becoming increasingly difficult to find buyers for cream. Condensed skim availability is mixed. In the East, accessibility is steady, and demand continues to be light. The same can be said for most of the West, but parts of the southwest are seeing tighter availability of condensed skim. Demand in the West is mixed. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.10-1.31 in the East, 1.00-1.28 in the Midwest, and 0.85-1.25 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were steady to higher in the Central and East regions, while steady to slightly lower in the West. In the southwest, NDM supplies are noted as tight. Dry buttermilk prices were steady to higher throughout the country. Tight supplies are meeting steady to heartier demand ahead of the winter holiday season. Dry whole milk prices were higher this week, despite quieter demand from confectioneries as holiday orders have generally been fulfilled. Dry whey prices continued their bullish trend. Demand is steady, but dry whey supplies are notably tight. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices were steady to higher. Lactose prices were steady to lower on steady domestic demand tones. Rennet casein prices were stable this week, while acid casein prices ticked lower.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Transition to Organic Partnership Program (TOPP) was formed through cooperative agreements between the USDA and non-profit organizations to provide technical assistance and support for transitioning and existing organic farmers. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported October 2024 estimated fluid product sales. The U.S. sale of total organic milk products was 256 million pounds, up 5.9 percent from the previous year, and up 6.8 percent year-to-date. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) releases monthly export data which includes export volumes and values for organic milk. Recently released data for October 2024 indicated organic milk exports were 464,716 liters, up 72.9 percent from the month prior, and up 85.2 percent from 2023.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads increased by 7 percent, whereas organic dairy ads decreased by 2 percent this week. Total conventional cheese ads increased for week 50 compared to week 49, conventional cheese easily remained the most advertised conventional dairy commodity. Conventional 6–8 ounce packages of sliced, shredded and block cheese have weighted average advertised prices of $2.73, $2.48, and $2.60, respectively. All three styles had price decreases for this package size. Both the shredded and block styles decreased by 16 cents, while the sliced style decreased by 10 cents.