4 April 2025

16 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 9,300 MT for 2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Hong Kong (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (200 MT). Exports of 14,900 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 53,000 MT for 2025--a marketing-year high--were up 66 percent from the previous week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (10,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Colombia (1,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 32,900 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,200 MT), South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,700 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT).

Tariffs expected to raise US beef prices

President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Australian goods while singling out the country’s beef exports for criticism on Wednesday. Australian farmers, traders and industry groups said on Thursday they would pass on any extra costs from tariffs to American consumers, potentially pushing up the prices of hamburgers and steaks. Australia exports around $2.5 billion worth of beef to the U.S. annually, its biggest market.

US Judge allows pork price-fixing case to proceed

A U.S. District Court judge has ruled that several of the nation’s largest pork producers — including Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods, and JBS USA — must face trial over allegations of a long-running conspiracy to fix pork prices and restrict supply, potentially costing consumers over $1.4 billion. The lawsuit accuses the companies of coordinating production cuts and exchanging non-public data through a third-party service called Agri Stats. This, plaintiffs argue, helped the firms inflate pork prices from 2009 to 2018.

The ruling: Judge John Tunheim, presiding in Minnesota, found there’s sufficient evidence for a jury to infer a coordinated scheme among the defendants. Hormel Foods was dismissed from the case due to insufficient evidence of participation, largely based on its limited role in Agri Stats.

Estimated impact. An expert for the plaintiffs pegged consumer damages at a minimum of $1.4 billion over the alleged conspiracy period. This lawsuit is part of a broader antitrust crackdown on meat producers, with similar claims already yielding hundreds of millions in settlements in the beef, turkey, and chicken markets.

Agri Stats, the data firm central to the claims, is accused of facilitating price coordination by sharing detailed production and pricing reports. The company denies any wrongdoing but has also been ordered to face trial.

Defendants deny all allegations. Hormel welcomed its dismissal.

Why it matters: This decision amplifies scrutiny of information-sharing practices in the meat industry. It also signals that private data exchanges, even if legal in form, may enable anti-competitive behavior — an issue likely to shape regulatory debates moving forward. This one’s heading to trial.

China reviews beef imports amid supply surge; agribusiness exporters watch closely as Beijing weighs new trade barriers

China’s Ministry of Commerce has pledged a “fair and objective” decision in an ongoing anti-dumping investigation that could reshape the global beef trade. Launched on Dec. 27, 2024, the probe was prompted by claims that a 106.28% spike in imports over five years has harmed China’s domestic beef producers.

Hearing overview (March 31, 2025):

• Participants: ~180 representatives, including beef-exporting nations (U.S., Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia), trade groups, Chinese importers, and domestic industry players.
• Scope: The investigation applies to all imported beef, not country-specific, underscoring China's concerns about oversupply and cooling demand in its local market.
• Process: China says it will consider all stakeholder input and follow regulations before issuing any decisions.

U.S. beef in the crosshairs. Exporters from the U.S. are navigating a difficult climate:

• Registration lapses: China let U.S. beef export facility registrations expire on March 16, 2025, complicating sales of beef processed after that date.
• Tariffs in place: U.S. beef continues to face a 10% retaliatory tariff, shrinking margins and eroding competitiveness.

Despite these challenges, U.S. beef remains popular in China’s premium retail and food service markets, not directly competing with lower-priced domestic offerings. Exporters argue that further restrictions would do little to protect China’s local producers.

China imported a record 2.87 million metric tons of beef in 2024, making it the world’s largest beef importer. However, with demand slowing and inventories high, Chinese industry associations are pushing for protective measures.

Of note: The investigation is expected to take eight months, but extensions are possible depending on the outcome.

U.S. scours Europe for eggs amid soaring prices, Easter demand

The U.S. government is scrambling to secure egg imports from Europe to combat skyrocketing prices at home, just as American families gear up for Easter. But the overseas egg hunt is proving more complicated than expected, the Associated Press reports. USDA has approached several European nations — including Germany, Poland, Italy, and Sweden — seeking relief from a domestic shortage caused by avian flu, according to European industry groups. However, Europe is facing its own bird flu challenges and Easter demand, leaving little surplus to spare. “We have around 45 million eggs that we can collect from the chicken coops every day, and in America, there’s a shortage of around 50 million eggs a day,” said Hans-Peter Goldnick, president of the German Egg Association. “That shows how difficult it is.”

A clash of standards. Even when eggs are available, regulatory hurdles are significant. U.S. food safety laws require eggs to be washed and refrigerated — the opposite of EU regulations, which prohibit washing to preserve a natural protective coating on the shell. “These are two systems that could not be more different,” Goldnick noted. In much of Europe, it’s not uncommon for eggs to be sold unwashed, sometimes with feathers or dirt still on them. Katarzyna Gawrońska, director of Poland’s National Chamber of Poultry and Feed Producers, said the “washed vs. unwashed” debate is a central issue in discussions with U.S. officials. Polish authorities are currently reviewing whether they can meet the stricter U.S. sanitation standards.

Powdered eggs more likely than fresh. Given the regulatory and supply challenges, European officials say processed egg products — powdered, liquid, or frozen — are the most viable export option. “If the U.S. certifies Poland as a source,” said Gawrońska, “our members could supply very large volumes of egg processing products.” These products, which are pasteurized and used in food manufacturing, could help ease shortages in bakeries, hospitals, and restaurants back in the U.S.

Politics on the back burner. While President Trump’s trade policies and strained relations with Europe loom in the background — including threats over Greenland, steel tariffs, and auto duties — most European producers are setting politics aside. “If the price is right, then I’ll deliver,” one German egg producer reportedly told Goldnick. “I have two souls in my chest,” Goldnick added. “On the one hand, I would say, ‘No, we can’t support this system.’ But... it concerns the people. It doesn’t concern the government.”

There is some good news for U.S. shoppers: egg prices have already begun to fall. The national wholesale price for a dozen large eggs dropped to $3.27 as of March 21, down from a staggering $8.15 in February, according to USDA. But with Easter and Passover approaching — both heavy egg-use holidays — demand could spike again in April, making imports, even in powdered form, a potentially critical lifeline.

Bird flu outbreak hits Andhra Pradesh

India has reported eight outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu in farms and backyard poultry, according to the World Organization for Animal Health. All cases were detected in Andhra Pradesh's eastern region, leading to the death or culling of 602,000 poultry.

— USDA expands access to avian influenza research funding webinar. On March 20, USDA announced a new funding opportunity aimed at supporting projects focused on avian influenza prevention, therapeutics, vaccines, and research. To help applicants understand the proposal process, USDA is hosting a webinar on Tuesday, April 1, at 12 p.m. ET. Due to high interest, the webinar link has been updated to allow more participants — registration is no longer required.

— Rollins backs Kennedy’s bird flu strategy — with a twist. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said she supports HHS Secretary Kennedy’s broader approach to tackling the bird flu outbreak — even as the two appear divided on a key issue: poultry vaccination. Responding to a question from Politico at the White House, Rollins said she agrees with Kennedy’s “all-encompassing” strategy, despite his controversial claim that vaccinating poultry could create “mutation factories.” That’s a sharp contrast to her own five-point plan, which includes a $100 million investment in vaccine research. “Secretary Kennedy’s approach, and I agree with it, is we’ve got to think about this in an all-encompassing approach, with the NIH, CDC, USDA, and HHS,” Rollins said. “So we are moving forward together.”

Bullish USDA hogs and pigs Report

USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 74.512 million head as of March 1, down 179,000 head (0.2%) from year-ago, whereas traders expected a 1.2% increase. The breeding herd at 5.980 million head declined 0.6%. The market hog inventory at 68.532 million head dropped 144,000 head (0.2%). The winter pig crop declined 0.2% and producers intend to farrow slightly fewer sows during spring (-0.2%) and summer (-0.8%). Given that every category in the report was below the average pre-report estimates, the data is bullish, especially with unexpected herd contraction..

China’s sow herd modestly builds

China’s sow herd totaled 40.7 million head at the end of February, up 0.6% from year-ago, according to data from the ag ministry. Hog slaughter rose 2.8% to 59.9 million head during the first two months of this year.

Beijing lets U.S. beef export registrations lapse... China has not renewed export registrations for U.S. beef facilities that expired on March 16, though it updated registrations for pork and poultry plants, Reuters reported, citing traders and the U.S. Meat Export Federation. As a result, U.S. exporters and Chinese buyers are reluctant to strike deals for American beef produced after that date due to uncertainty about whether it will be cleared for delivery. U.S. beef export sales to China totaled just 54 MT during the week ended March 20.

USDA lowers overall food inflation outlook, but egg prices soar

USDA trimmed its forecast for overall food price inflation in 2025, despite sharply raising its projection for egg prices due to ongoing avian flu impacts.

USDA now expects food prices to rise 3.2% in 2025, slightly down from its February forecast of 3.4%. Grocery (food-at-home) prices are projected to climb 2.7%, compared to the prior estimate of 3.3%. In contrast, restaurant (food-away-from-home) prices are now expected to rise 3.7%, up from February’s 3.4% forecast.

Despite the lowered overall outlook, all three categories are still projected to rise above their 20-year averages: 2.9% for all food, 2.6% for groceries, and 3.5% for restaurants. In 2024, all food prices rose 2.3%, grocery prices were up 1.2%, and restaurant prices increased 4.1%.

Egg prices spike amid avian flu outbreak. The most dramatic change comes in the forecast for eggs, with USDA now projecting a record 57.6% increase in 2025 — up sharply from the 41.1% forecast in February and far higher than the 8.5% increase seen in 2024. Retail egg prices surged 12.5% in February 2025 alone, following double-digit gains in January and December. USDA attributes the price volatility to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, which affected about 30 million commercial egg-laying hens in early 2025. Although detections eased in March, USDA notes that retail prices typically lag behind changes in wholesale prices, which have recently declined.

Mixed shifts in other food categories. Several food categories are now forecast to be cheaper in 2025 than in 2024:

• Pork: Down 1.5% (vs. +1.2% in February)
• Other meats: Down 0.2% (vs. +0.6%)
• Poultry: Down 0.4% (vs. unchanged)
• Dairy: Down 0.8% (vs. +2.2%)

Beef and veal prices, however, are expected to climb 5.2% in 2025, up from the February forecast of 3.2%. Beef and veal prices are now forecast to rise 5.2% in 2025 versus an outlook for an increase of 3.2% in February.

USDA also slightly reduced its forecast for other categories:

• Fats and oils: +0.3% (vs. +0.6% in February)
• Sugar and sweets: +5.1% (vs. +6.4%)
• Fruits and vegetables: Still seen rising 1.7%, though fresh fruits are now forecast to rise just 0.1%, and fresh vegetables by 2.0%.

Why overall grocery inflation remains moderate. Although egg prices are surging, their limited weight in the index — just 1.4% of total food prices — helps explain why the overall grocery inflation outlook was revised lower. In contrast, food at home accounts for 58.9% of the food component of the CPI, while restaurant spending makes up 41.1%.

USDA emphasizes that its forecasts reflect the annual average change in prices for 2025 compared to 2024, not month-to-month or year-end inflation. Some of the projected increases for 2025 have already materialized in early-year data.

Bottom line: Even with a slower pace of inflation compared to recent years, the trend remains clear: U.S. consumers will still pay more for food in 2025 than they did in 2024.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/28) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.3500. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.3385 (+0.0405). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6350 and 40# blocks at $1.6350. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6330 (+0.0580) and blocks $1.6345 (+0.0250). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1625. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1510 (-0.0010). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5000. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5010 (+0.0290).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic retail butter demand varies from steady to stronger, while domestic food service demand is less robust. Aided by competitive domestic prices in comparison to international prices, export demand is stronger. Although cream multiples generally moved higher this week, cream availability remains far from short. Some stakeholders noted finding homes for cream loads to be somewhat easier recently. Affordable cream for butter manufacturers is readily available and many butter churns are at-or-near production capacities. Bulk butter overages range from 5 cents below to 6 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts in the East region share active cheese manufacturing schedules. Some contacts continue to share mixed notes on cheese demand. Retail demand is steady while foodservice demand remains light. Cheesemakers in the Central region note inventories continue to grow. Several processors note Italian style cheese demand remains strong. Spot milk prices were reported at $4 under to $0.50 above Class III. Cheese manufacturers in the West region relay steady to stronger production schedules. Spot loads of cheese are generally available. Retail demand is noted to be stronger than foodservice demand.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Across much of the country, milk outputs are approaching or within spring flush volumes. Many manufacturers suggest they have plenty of milk for their processing needs. Class III and IV milk demand is largely steady and active, while Class II demand is steady to slightly higher. Class I bottling demand varies depending upon location as some educational institutions have returned from spring breaks and others are still on hiatus. Each region has spot milk loads available. Central spot milk prices ranged from $4.00-under Class III to $.50-over Class. Cream remains abundant, and multiples have inched higher. Cream multiples for all Classes are 1.00 – 1.18 in the East, 1.00 – 1.15 in the Central region, and 0.80 – 1.05 in the West. Active butter churning and an increase in ice cream and cream cheese manufacturing is helping alleviate some of the excess cream loads. Condensed skim milk is abundant in the East and becoming more available in the West. Condensed skim demand is mixed in the West and weak in the East.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk prices were steady in the Central and East, while decreasing in the West. Domestic demand picked up midweek according to Midwest contacts. Dry buttermilk prices slipped in all regions this week. Dry whey prices eschewed recent norms in the Central region and pushed slightly higher on the bottom of the range. Dry whey prices slipped in the West, while they held steady in the East. Whey markets are heading into uncertainty, but processors relayed somewhat stable demand notes this week after some market unease over the past few weeks. Lactose prices slipped lower, and whey protein concentrate 34% prices followed suit. Both markets have been notably bullish throughout much of the year so far. Dry whole milk, acid casein, and rennet casein prices were all unchanged this report week.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: WEST EUROPE: WEST EUROPE: The British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) reported updated dairy herd figures. The January 2025 milking herd in Great Britain was listed at 1.62 million head, down 0.9 percent from January 2024, while the total dairy herd was listed at 2.51 million head, down 1.4 percent from January 2024 and the lowest number on record. Ireland's Central Statistics Office released the February 2025 Wholesale Price Index. Producer prices for dairy products increased 18.6 percent from February 2024.

EAST EUROPE: Foot and mouth disease outbreaks were reported on three separate farms in Slovakia. The outbreaks affect roughly 2,700 dairy cows, heifers, calves, and bulls across the three farms.

AUSTRALIA: According to Dairy Australia, February 2025 milk production, 572.4 million liters, was down 4.8 percent from February 2024. Milk production from the start of the season in July 2024 through February 2025, 5,938.5 million liters, decreased 0.1 percent compared to the same time frame a year earlier. Dairy Australia recently released export data for Australia showing milk export volumes from July 2024 - January 2025 were 97,080 MT, down 13.6 percent from the same time period a year earlier.

NEW ZEALAND: Milk production data from New Zealand for February 2025 was recently released. This data showed total February 2025 production was down 2.6 percent on a tonnage basis compared to a year earlier. During February 2025, the total kg of milk solids decreased by 2.0 per-cent from the previous year. From the start of the production season in June 2024 through February 2025 milk production on a tonnage basis is up by 2.4 percent compared to the same time period a year ago, while milksolid production is up 3.2 percent from last year. Export data for February 2025 was recently released for New Zealand. This data showed a 27 percent increase in value for milk powder, butter, and cheese exported in February 2025 compared to February 2024.

SOUTH AMERICA: This year, all the major dairy producing South American countries, including Chile and Columbia, are all sharing positive milk output trends early in the year. Nature is playing a role as NOAA suggests more "weak La Nina" and neutral weather patterns to persist through May and into the summer. Despite recently reported downward yield expectations on some harvest reports in the region, milk output expectations are, on the whole, holding strong. Contacts in the region say farmers' margins may narrow, though, if feed costs increase as a result of delayed and/or limited corn and bean harvests. Trading activity is picking up for most dairy commodities as Q1 comes to a close.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Conventional dairy ads decreased by 13 percent and organic dairy ads decreased by 80 percent for week 13. On the conventional side, cream cheese had the biggest percent increase in ad numbers. On the organic side, only sour cream had an increase in total ads by commodity. Cheese was the heaviest advertised conventional dairy commodity. Ice cream passed up yogurt for the second most heavily advertised conventional commodity spot this week. The organic premium for a half gallon container of milk this week was $3.50.