24 January 2025

13 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

Mexico feeder cattle NWS update

As of Jan. 23, the import of live cattle from Mexico to the US remains suspended due to the detection of New World screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. The ban, implemented on Nov. 22, 2024, is still in effect with no definite date set for its lifting. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is currently working on protocols for the importation of cattle from Mexico. While cattle imports remain suspended, APHIS has announced that equine imports from Mexico resumed on Jan. 21. APHIS emphasized it will only approve measures for cattle imports once it is confident the threat of NWS crossing the border has been mitigated.

US cattle futures score all-time high

February live cattle futures settled at $200.05 on Wednesday, marking an all-time high on the continuation chart and the first time above the $200.00 level. Funds continue to pile money into long positions, despite their aggressive long stance given futures’ big discounts to the cash market.

Trained Immunity: A New Frontier in Poultry Production

Researchers review current advances in trained immunity—a promising avenue for preventing infectious diseases in chickens.

Trained immunity, a modification of cells in the innate immune system, may represent a new way of protecting poultry from infectious diseases. In a recent review article, researchers from Japan highlight key findings in this field, focusing on how vaccines and dietary supplementation with β-glucans can enhance the innate immune system. Their efforts will pave the way towards more research in this unexplored area of avian immunology, leading to healthier and more productive chicken farms.

In the ever-evolving world of poultry production, maintaining the health of chickens is vital not only for guaranteeing animal welfare but also for ensuring a safe and sustainable food supply. The immune system thus plays a crucial role in protecting chickens from a variety of diseases.

The adaptive immune system, which includes highly specific responses driven by cellular memory, has long been the focus of vaccination strategies. However, recent research has highlighted the potential of trained immunity as a promising approach to disease prevention in various animals. Trained immunity can enhance the innate immune system—a less specific line of defense—through epigenetic and metabolic reprogramming of immune cells. However, the concept of trained immunity in poultry remains underexplored.

Against this backdrop, a research team led by Professor Yukinori Yoshimura from Hiroshima University and The Open University of Japan recently published a review article in The Journal of Poultry Science in Volume 61 on March 13, 2024. This review highlights the effects of vaccination and β-glucan supplementation on trained immunity in chickens.

“One of the key findings of our review was that the Newcastle disease/infectious bronchitis vaccine, widely used in poultry farming, has been shown to increase the expression of certain toll-like receptors (TLR7 and TLR21),” says Prof. Yoshimura. These receptors enable innate immune cells to detect single-stranded ribonucleic acid viruses and unmethylated cytosine-phosphate-guanine-deoxyribonucleic acid of pathogens, even those unrelated to the vaccine's specific antigens. Therefore, vaccination may enhance the innate immune system’s responses alongside its well-established effects on adaptive immunity, constituting a form of trained immunity.

Notably, the benefits of β-glucan supplementation are quite varied, as it enhances the activity of innate immune cells and modulates the balance of cytokines and chemokines in the intestine, supporting a healthier immune environment.

However, further research is needed to fully understand the applicability of vaccines and dietary supplementation in achieving trained immunity. “The determination of markers of trained immunity, such as specific histone modifications and intracellular metabolic events, will support the exploration of more effective vaccines and feed additives in the future,” says Prof. Yoshimura, “Nonetheless, the enhancement of both adaptive and innate immunity will likely provide chickens with better defense mechanisms, leading to healthier and more productive poultry.”

China’s record beef imports risk trade curbs amid price slump

China’s record-breaking beef imports in 2024, totaling 2.87 million tons, have coincided with a significant drop in wholesale beef prices, now at their lowest levels since 2019. While demand for the red meat has surged over decades, consumption declined last year as consumers cut back on spending. According to a Bloomberg repor, the combination of rising imports, increased domestic production, and falling prices has put significant pressure on Chinese cattle farmers, with two-thirds reportedly operating at a loss. The Ministry of Commerce is investigating whether these imports are harming local producers, a move that could lead to trade restrictions within eight months.

Impacts. Brazil, which supplies nearly half of China’s beef imports, along with Argentina, Australia, and the U.S., would be most affected by any protectionist measures. While boosting imports from the US could ease trade tensions, China appears more focused on protecting its farmers and ensuring food security.

Georgia and other states report HPAI outbreaks; trade concerns mount

A flock of 45,500 breeder chickens tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) last week in Elbert County, Georgia, near the border with South Carolina, USDA said. This was Georgia’s, the leading U.S. chicken producer, first confirmed case of the disease in a commercial operation.

The USA Poultry & Egg Export Council said the outbreak was likely to trigger trade restrictions from major meat importers. It said Mexico, the biggest importer of U.S. poultry products, will likely halt purchases from Georgia for about two to four weeks, until it revises the ban to apply to the county. Taiwan, the third-biggest importer of U.S. poultry, will block poultry imports from Georgia for six to eight months, the export council estimated. South Korea will likely impose a ban on Georgia's poultry that should be lifted 28 days after the virus has been eliminated, a process that will likely take three to four months, the council said.

The confirmation brings the total number of commercial flocks affected so far in January to 29 with 26 backyard flocks for a total of 8.38 million birds affected. Over the past 30 days, there have been 89 confirmed flocks (49 commercial, 40 backyard) for a total of 12.97 million birds.

APHIS confirmed more H5N1 detections in other states, mostly involving commercial farms. They include turkey and egg-laying farms in Indiana, a duck meat farm in New York, layer poultry flocks in Ohio, a layer farm in California, a broiler farm in Maryland, and a turkey farm in Minnesota.

Also, APHIS confirmed a detection in a backyard flock housing 30 birds in Greene County, Tennessee.

Since the first detection in US poultry in early 2022, H5N1 outbreaks have now led to the loss of a record 138.7 million birds across 50 states and Puerto Rico.

Meanwhile, APHIS confirmed one more H5N1 detection in a dairy herd, another from California, raising the national total to 929 and California's total to 712.

China’s hog farmers recover, cattle and dairy still struggling

China’s hog farms have recovered from a period of losses, while declines in cattle and dairy farming have been partially alleviated, an ag ministry official said. However, the meat and dairy sectors are struggling with oversupply challenges due to a slowing economy and declining consumption. China will continue to implement policies to address challenges in the beef and dairy sectors and stabilize production capacity. Authorities are investigating beef imports as part of efforts to protect domestic producers. China is also considering trade restrictions on imports of dairy and pork from the European Union.

China’s pork imports rise in December

China imported 200,000 MT of pork in December, up 20,000 MT (11.1%) from November and 7.7% above year-ago. In 2024, China imported 2.28 MMT of pork, down 15.7% from the previous year.

Major changes approved for US Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMOs)

US Dairy producers have endorsed significant updates to the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMOs), marking a pivotal shift in U.S. dairy pricing policy. Following a comprehensive USDA-led review, the modifications include:

• Reversal of 2018 Farm Bill changes: Returning to the "higher-of" Class I skim milk price formula to address losses exceeding $750 million under the previous system.

• Updated manufacturing allowances: New rates per pound set for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey.
• Adjusted skim milk composition factors: Revised standards include 3.3% true protein, 6.0% other solids, and 9.3% nonfat solids.
• Removal of barrel cheese pricing: Excludes 500-pound barrel cheddar cheese prices from federal surveys.
• New ESL product class: Introduces an average-based adjustment for extended shelf-life products.

Most changes will take effect on June 1, 2025, with some delayed until Dec. 1, 2025. This overhaul, supported by dairy farmers across all 11 FMMOs, aims to stabilize pricing, improve farmer incomes, and enhance market dynamics.

China’s pork output falls for first time in four years

China produced 57.06 MMT of pork in 2024, down 1.5% from 2023 and the first annual decline in four years. Hog slaughter totaled 702.56 million head last year, down 3.3% from 2023. In the fourth quarter, pork production fell 1.8% from year-ago to 14.66 MMT. China’s hog herd totaled 427.43 million head at the end of December, down 1.6%. China’s beef output rose 3.5% to 7.79 MMT in 2024, while poultry output increased 3.8% to 26.6 MMT and lamb and mutton decreased 2.5% to 5.18 MMT.

USDA officially updates poultry payment rules, withdraws fair competition proposal

USDA officially published its final rule on Poultry Grower Payment Systems and Capital Improvement Systems, set to take effect on July 1, in the Federal Register. The rule's future remains uncertain, as it could be subject to changes under the Trump administration.

USDA withdraws proposed rule on Fair and Competitive Livestock and Poultry Markets

Despite this, the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) affirmed its continued support for the rule’s intent and purpose. The withdrawal provides an opportunity to revisit the matter in the future and work with stakeholders to implement the Packers and Stockyards Act. AMS emphasized that this decision does not reflect a change in its interpretation of authority.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (1/17) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5300. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5640 (-0.0260). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8900 and 40# blocks at $1.8900. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8740 (+0.0085) and blocks $1.8825 (-0.0150). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.3725. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.3680 (+0.0010). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7375. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7380 (-0.0035).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Butter demand is mixed mid-way through the first month of 2025. Cream volumes are readily available throughout the country for butter manufacturers to work through their churns. Although spot cream loads are being offered to butter manufacturers, many are not seeking out spot loads of cream to secure on top of already contracted volumes. The bottom end of the All-Classes cream multiple range was under 1.00 for both the East and West regions this week. Butter production schedules vary from steady to stronger. A few manufacturers convey their unsalted butter stocks are tight. Bulk butter overages range from 5 cents below to 6 cents above market, across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production schedules vary from steady to stronger throughout the U.S. In the East region, milk availability ranges from steady to snug. That said, contacts relay active cheese production schedules. Demand from both retail and foodservice sectors is steady. Cheesemakers in the Central region relay seasonally strong cheese production schedules. Cheese demand is noted to be steady to lighter than usual for this time of year. Contacts reported spot milk prices ranging from $0.50 to $1.50 above Class III. In the West region, cheese production is trending steady to stronger. Milk handlers relay healthy demand for milk from cheese manufacturers. Spot loads of cheese are on the snug side, but generally available for interested buyers.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Farm milk production is generally increasing in all regions. Some contacts continue to report year-over-year records regarding component levels (milkfat and protein) after some relayed their December monthly report numbers this week. Even with increasing farm production, milk availability is staying at snug levels as strong demand for milk prevails. With educational institutions back in session and some retailers stocking up ahead of adverse weather events, bottlers are actively looking for Class I milk. The nation’s cheesemakers are running active schedules. Demand from Class III is mixed in the West and strengthening in the East and Central regions. Cheesemakers reported spot milk prices between $0.50- and $1.50-over Class III this week. Large cream volumes continue to stream into processing plants. Demand for cream is mixed in the West, and cream multiples have stayed as low as 0.70. East region cream demand is steady from all Classes. Contacts in the Central region are seeing active demand for cream from all but Class IV, where demand is steady. Cream multiples for all Classes range 0.90 – 1.20 in the East, 1.00 1.20 in the Midwest, and 0.70 – 1.15 in the West. Condensed skim availability has tightened up in recent weeks. Skim handlers say demand is ticking up slightly.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Dry dairy ingredients were not in unison this week regarding bullish and bearish movements. Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices moved lower in all regions. Demand has remained quiet, and contacts are bringing up concerns regarding hesitant export movements to Mexican markets. Dry buttermilk prices ticked higher in the Central/East regions, while holding steady in West region trading. Heavier churning activity is expected to increase buttermilk availability, as demand tones range from steady to hearty. Dry whole milk prices were unchanged on limited processing due to stronger bottling activity, which is pulling milk from processing. Dry whey prices were higher in the Central region, while steady to higher in the West and unchanged in the East based on similar market sentiment to the previous weeks. Tighter supplies and noteworthy demand is keeping whey markets on a steady to bullish trajectory near-term. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices continued their northbound trajectory this week. Some manufacturers relay availability will be limited until the spring. The lactose price range contracted this week, while availability varies according to mesh size. Acid casein prices ticked higher this week, while rennet casein prices remained static.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: 

WEST EUROPE: Ireland's Central Statistics Office released total milk intakes by processors and cooperatives in November 2024 are estimated at 510.0 million liters. This is an increase of 128.3 million liters from November 2023. Milk intake in November 2024 was the highest recorded milk intake in any November since the series began in 1975. The UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) released data showing daily milk deliveries for the week ending January 4 averaged at 34.18 million liters, up 0.2 percent from the week prior and up 2.9 percent from the same week last year.

EAST EUROPE: New rules published by the Russian Agricultural Ministry suggest subsidies for preferential investment loans issued between 2017 and 2022 will be lowered to 50 percent of the Central Bank's key interest rate, down from the original subsidies ranging from 80 to 100 percent of the Central Bank's key interest rate. Some industry stakeholders believe this rule will limit investments in the dairy industry.

AUSTRALIA: According to Dairy Australia, November 2024 milk production, 868.0 million liters, was down 0.2 percent from November 2023. November 2024 milk production was up from the prior year in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia. Meanwhile, milk production was down in Queensland, Western Australia, and Tasmania. Milk production from the start of the season in July 2024 through November 2024, 3,859.1 million liters, increased 1.3 percent compared to the same time frame a year earlier.

NEW ZEALAND: Export data for November 2024 was recently released for New Zealand. This data showed a 12 percent increase in value for milk powder, butter, and cheese exported in November 2024 compared to November 2023. Fresh milk and cream export values were 19 percent higher in November 2024, when compared to a year earlier. Changes in export quantities from November 2023 to November 2024 for milk powder, milk fats (including butter) and cheese are - 9.1 percent, - 8.4 percent, and + 15 percent, respectively. Infant formula export values in November 2024 were 27 percent higher compared to a year prior, while casein and caseinate values were down 22 percent.

SOUTH AMERICA: Milk availability is far from long according to dairy industry contacts in South America. This has led to some bullish price movements in the region. The international whey complex is also bringing some new export opportunities for processors in Argentina, as international interest in high protein whey complexes has been notably bullish. Whole and skim milk powder expectations are somewhat bullish throughout Q1. Whey and cheese interest, in general, has been healthy from the Brazilian importing perspective. Brazilian importer contacts continue to suggest currency fluctuations and logistical costs are holding up some intercontinental dealmaking.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT: Total conventional dairy advertisements increased by 8 percent while total organic dairy ads increased by 14 percent. Conventional ice cream in 48–64-ounce containers was the second most advertised dairy product, with a weighted average advertised price of $4.44, up from $4.33 the week before. Conventional butter in one-pound packages had a weighted average advertised price of $4.32, up from $3.69 the week prior. Sliced cheese in 6–8-ounce packages was the most advertised conventional dairy item, with a weighted average advertised price of $2.57, up from $2.48 the week prior.