Dr Yang Ning, a researcher at the university's animal science department, gave his assessment on the development of the country's layer sector at a seminar during the 15th China Eastern Seaboard Poultry Trade Fair. The industry event, held from May 10 to 11 in Yangzhou, attracted a large crowd of mainly Chinese poultry breeders and commercial layer farmers.

During the seminar, Dr Yang, using statistical data and charts, gave a thorough review of the different development phases in China's poultry industry over the past 20 years. Topics discussed include the present outlook for China's layer industry, the issues and problems involved as well as a forecast on future developments.

Dr Yang felt that China has succeeded in building a system with the capacity to develop high quality poultry breeds. In recent years, the industry has put in place a supply model that combines the best of local expertise in developing high grade breeds of poultry and imported quality poultry breeds. Based on the number of grandparent stocks, the current layer parent stocks are estimated at 18 million, while commercial layer stocks (including reserves) have remained at 2 billion.

China is one of the world's major producers and consumer of poultry eggs and the country has consistently topped the world in the terms of poultry production. Since 1980, China has maintained a 7.8 percent annual average growth in poultry egg production, three times the world average of 2.6 percent in that period.

From an output of 2.935 million tonnes of poultry eggs in 1980, production rose to 25.35 million tonnes in 2003. In 1991, China produced 9.46 million tonnes of poultry eggs and in that year, the annual per capita consumption hit 8 kg, exceeding the world average for the first time. Currently, average per capita consumption of eggs is at 19kg, on par with that in developed countries.

Poultry egg prices in production regions across China were analysed for a review on the possible prospects and returns in the industry. This was based on the assumption that the prices of feed, day-old chicks and eggs continued to be the main factors impacting profit margins for 2003 and 2004. A further analysis also threw up some regional variations in production returns ¨C the highest level was seen in Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan and Sichuan provinces while the lowest returns came from Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and Guangxi.

With per capita consumption already high, Dr Yang reasoned that further growth in consumption-driven production would be limited. Instead, future growth will likely reflect the pace of natural population increase and the development of the rural economy. Harnessing technology to meet this increase in demand appears to be the sole answer.

Source: eFeedLink - 18th May 2005