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CME: World Broiler Production Forecast to Grow

by 5m Editor
2 November 2011, at 8:04am

US - USDA’s semi-annual Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade Report contains a wealth of information about projected meat and poultry trade patterns for the coming year — for both the US and major competitor countries, write Steve Meyer and Len Steiner.

The report can be found at http://www.fas.usda.gov/livestock_arc.asp.

Some highlights of the October report are:

The competition level for world beef exports has tightened tremendously in the past two years and will remain very tight in 2012. The chart at top right comes directly from the USDA report and shows the expected near dead heat between Brazil, Australia, the US and India for world beef export tonnage in 2012.

Total beef exports are expected to rise by five per cent next year due to strong global demand. India will capture about half of that growth, enough to possibly edge out the US for the third spot in the rankings of world beef exporting countries.

The driver for India is dairy production. India is the world’s largest consumer of dairy products and the cattle and buffalo herds that support that consumption produce a lot of bovine meat, much of which is exported to countries with a stronger preference for bovine meat.

World beef production will be virtually the same in 2012 as it is in 2011. Lower US production (by five per cent according to FAS) will be offset by increases in some major beef producing and exporting countries.

Brazil’s beef output will grow by about two per cent in 2012 to 9.2 million metric tons but most of the increase will be consumed domestically as Brazilian beef demand strengthens.

Beef output will also rise in Argentina (+ four per cent) and Australia (+ two per cent) as the latter recovers from a long drought and continues re-building cattle inventories.

Canada’s herd will actually begin growing after years of post-BSE contraction. Canada will raise more calves and keep more of them for domestic feeding, increasing beef output by about four per cent.

Interestingly, one source of much larger beef tonnage will be Korea, whose cattle industry was saved by using foot and mouth disease vaccines.

World pork production will move back to its long-term growth pattern in 2012, increasing two per cent to a record total of 103.4 million metric tons.

China and Korea are the sources of largest production growth but output will also increase in the US, Russia and Brazil.

Korea’s production is expected to grow by 21 per cent (after at 25 per cent decline in 2011) but will still be 100,000 metric tons short of 2010 output.

China’s output is forecast to grow by four per cent to 51.3 million tons, just short of 50% of the entire world’s pork output.

USDA expects Canadian production to increase one per cent in 2012, marking a turning point from several years of contraction driven mainly by a strong Canadian dollar.

Pork trade is forecast to fall by four per cent in 2012, limited by the Russian tariff rate quota and lower demand from Korea. Russia’s efforts to become more self-sufficient in pork production are bearing some fruit as output will grow by nearly three per cent and imports will fall by 25 per cent to only 700,000 metric tons, the lowest annual level since 2004.

Japan’s pork imports are expected to be steady with 2011 levels while Mexico is expected to increase its purchases — especially in light of the removal of tariffs on certain US pork products two weeks ago as part of the settlement of the US-Mexico trade spat over Mexican trucks operating in non-border states.

US share of world pork exports will increase to 35.3 per cent in 2012, up from 34.1 per cent in 2011 and 31.7 per cent in 2010.

The share gain comes primarily at the expense of EU-27.

World broiler production will grow by five per cent and will set yet another record at 83.1 million metric tons. USDA has US production down only one per cent from 2011 levels but expects five per cent increases from both Brazil and China. Growth in those countries is driven primarily by domestic consumption.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.