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USDA Supply, Demand Report: Friendly for Corn, Soybeans; Bearish for Wheat

10 April 2014, at 8:02am

ANALYSIS - The April USDA supply and demand report contained no major surprises. However, the latest government data was deemed a bit bullish for corn and soybeans, and modestly bearish for wheat, reports grain analyst Jim Wyckoff for TheCropSite.

May corn futures prices shot to a fresh 7.5-month high following the USDA report, but then backed off on profit taking and were trading modestly lower after the report.

May soybeans pushed above $15.00 and hit a new contract high right after the government report, but also then backed off to trade just modestly higher.

May soft red winter wheat futures prices sold off and were holding solid losses after the USDA data.

For 2013-14 U.S. carryover, corn came in at 1.331 billion bushels in April.

That's down from March estimate of 1.456 billion bushels and compares to 824 million bushels in 2012-13. USDA's old-crop corn ending stocks projection was 72 million bushels lower than the average pre-report guess.

USDA now sees an average on-farm U.S. cash corn price of $4.40 to $4.80--up 15 cents on the bottom end of the range and up 5 cents on the top end from last month.

Soybean carryover was pegged by 135 million bushels--down from March projection of 145 million bushels and compares to 141 million bushels in 2012-13. Soybean ending stocks were 4 million bushels more than traders expected.

USDA's national average on-farm cash price projection is now $12.50 to $13.50--up 30 cents on the bottom end of the range and down 20 cents on the top end.

Wheat carryout stands at 583 million bushels in April, which is up from March estimate of 558 million bushels and compares to 718 million bushels in 2012-13. USDA projects the national average on-farm wheat price at $6.75 to $6.95--unchanged from last month.