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Daily US grain report: US harvest progress in focus as futures remain steady

US grain futures prices were steady to narrowly mixed overnight.

25 October 2019, at 3:35pm

Bullish for the grains are weather forecasts next week that include cold, rain and even some snow for the US Corn Belt. That will delay an already late harvest for corn and soybean crops, and could cause quality problems.

However, the upside in grain futures has been limited this week by normal autumn harvest hedge pressure from commercials, as farmers sell their newly cut crop right off their combines.

Price uptrend still in place but in jeopardy now. Bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive
Price uptrend still in place but in jeopardy now. Bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive

Overall, grain trader attitudes remain upbeat this week, including the US-China trade negotiations. Reports overnight said the US and China continue to hash out "Phase 1" of their trade agreement reached a couple weeks ago. The US is pushing China to purchase more US ag products in exchange for the US eliminating some of its tariffs on Chinese imports.

While it appears the trade talks have made progress, veteran market watchers know "the devil is in the details."

Bulls have firm near-term technical advantage as price uptrend in place. Recent pause is not bearish but bulls need to show fresh power soon
Bulls have firm near-term technical advantage as price uptrend in place. Recent pause is not bearish but bulls need to show fresh power soon

© Jim Wyckoff

The International Grains Council has lowered its global wheat production forecast for 2019-20 by 2 million metric tons due to Australia's wheat crop estimate being lowered to 17.0 million MT from 19.1 million due to drought.

The IGC now projects global wheat output at 762 million metric tons in 2019-20.