Daily US grain report: grain markets stabilize as coronavirus impact on demand factored into prices - for now

US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early US pre-market trading Wednesday. Corn is around 1 cent lower, soybeans around 5 cents higher and wheat is 3 to 5 cents down.

29 January 2020

7 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

While the coronavirus outbreak is still not at all contained, the grain markets at this point are deeming the event as mostly factored into market prices. That perception could change. There is still concern that a major coronavirus outbreak in China that causes harm to the world’s second-largest economy could provide China with an “out clause” regarding the recently signed trade agreement with the US, in which China pledged to buy significantly more US ag products.

Bulls recover to stabilize the market, now suggesting more sideways and choppy trading in the near term
© Jim Wyckoff

Grain market bulls are not spooked anymore, but they are also not going to be aggressive buyers - at least not yet.

Focus will turn to Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report for clues on export demand for US grains - which has not been robust of late. There are ideas that China won’t step up its US grain purchases until after the Lunar New Year holiday ends later this week.

Bears have solid chart advantage amid steep price downtrend line to suggest retest of December low, or below
© Jim Wyckoff

Also negative for the grain markets is weather in South American growing regions that is presently non-problematic, including reports that a large soybean crop will be harvested in South America this year. Reports are saying that South American soybean prices are at least 15 cents per bushel cheaper on the world market than are US soybeans.