In its June Chickens and Eggs report, USDA estimates June egg production at 8.81 billion eggs, down 2% from last year, according to a recent market report from Bernt Nelson at the American Farm Bureau Federation. The breakdown includes 7.56 billion table eggs and 1.25 billion hatching eggs. Of these hatching eggs, 1.15 billion were broiler-type while 96.7 million were egg-type. The number of layers in June 2024 was 371 million, down 3%, while egg production per 100 layers was up 1%.

Egg sets (eggs placed in incubators) are important for ensuring a healthy supply of hatching eggs. When farmers are faced with a decrease in egg hatchability or an expected reduction in production, they begin setting more eggs to achieve the desired number of chicks for placement, which happens about three weeks after hatching. Egg sets peaked in April at 5.4% above the five-year average. Three weeks later in May, chicks placed were 4% above the five-year average. Egg sets in July were also 4% above the year-over-year average while chick placements were up only 0.7%.

Table egg layers have suffered from HPAI outbreaks, with the most recent detections occurring on July 24 in Colorado and affecting about 3.4 million birds. There were zero HPAI detections in table egg flocks in June. However, 5.6 million birds were lost in May. The egg laying flock inventory in June consisted of 305.9 million birds, a loss of less than half a million from May. This shows some resilience considering how many birds were lost in May from HPAI but is still only slightly above the 2022 inventory. Based on this data, second quarter USDA forecasts for production were adjusted up 10 million dozen to 1.9 billion dozen eggs. While this is down 2.6% from last year, when combined with third and fourth quarter adjustments, 2024 table egg production is adjusted up 10 million dozen, bringing the total just shy of 7.8 billion dozen eggs, about 0.9% below 2023.

The average New York June wholesale price for large eggs was $2.58 per dozen. This brings the average second quarter price to $2.27 per dozen, about 7 cents, or 3%, above last month’s estimate and about 91 cents, or 70%, above the average second quarter price for 2023. Egg prices are relatively stable for now. However, with the table egg layer inventory as low as it is, any fall outbreaks of HPAI have the potential to drive up prices.