USDA releases its annual Turkeys Raised report near the end of September, just ahead of Thanksgiving festivities when the majority of turkey is consumed in the United States, according to a recent market report from Bernt Nelson at the American Farm Bureau Federation. This report contains production data relating to turkey supplies for the current year. USDA published data on turkey production in two other monthly reports, The Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook and Poultry Slaughter.

According to USDA’s July Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, May 2024 turkey production was 441.1 million pounds, down about 9.6% from May 2023, while slaughter was down 11.8% from last year. Average turkey weights were 2.7% higher year over year, leading USDA to increase production estimates by 15 million pounds, to 1.34 billion pounds for the first half of the year. This is 5.3% lower than last year. The turkey industry has proven susceptible to HPAI mostly due to farms’ geographic location along the central flyway, a migratory path for wild birds. In 2024, 1.2 million turkeys have been lost nationally to HPAI, including June outbreaks in Iowa and Minnesota affecting a combined total of 549,500 turkeys.

June is an important month for turkey production. Eggs in incubators during June typically hatch in July. These chicks are then placed on feed to grow in time for Thanksgiving in November. Just under 23 million eggs were in incubators on June 1, a record low. Due to low egg numbers and reduced production, the turkey sector is looking at greater risks from HPAI than in 2023. USDA estimates projected production for 2024 will be 4.215 billion pounds, down 4.5% from 2023. The 2024 average wholesale price estimate for turkey is 95.7 cents per pound, down 44 cents from 2023.