Global poultry industry set for strong growth - Rabobank
Growth expected despite geopolitical and trade challenges
21 January 2025
3 minute read
By: According to RaboResearch’s latest animal protein report, the global poultry industry is poised for another year of robust growth in 2025, driven by affordability, sustainability trends, and strong demand in emerging markets.
Industry growth returns to long-term levels
The global poultry market is expected to grow by 2.5% to 3% in 2025, continuing its strong momentum from 2024 and marking a return to long-term global average market growth. This growth is largely due to poultry's affordability, especially in times of economic pressure and high prices for other proteins.
"Chicken will remain well-positioned in times of expensive competing proteins and lower costs," said Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein with RaboResearch.
Additionally, increasing customer commitments to sustainability are driving a shift toward poultry in developed economies due to poultry’s relatively lower carbon dioxide footprint compared to other animal proteins. This shift is expected to further support the industry's growth.
Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to lead this growth, although developed markets, particularly Europe, will also see ongoing expansion, with Europe outpacing global market growth.
"However, the success of the market will hinge on balanced supply growth," noted Mulder.
Industry investments improve, but avian influenza remains a concern
The poultry industry’s strong financial performance in 2024 encouraged new investments. The biggest focus now is on expansion in the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, while European and North American investments are recovering. Brazil is in a new growth mode, driven by strong exports. All of this is leading to local and international investments, but the supply of breeding stock is tight, which will negatively impact investments in some emerging markets.
Global supply growth will also face challenges from avian influenza, which remains a significant issue and could disrupt local markets and global trade. A new wave of cases is impacting central Europe and Northeast Asia. Optimal industry biosecurity will be key, and countries have been increasingly adopting vaccination as tool to reduce avian influenza risks. Disease risks and tight breeding stocks are likely to restrict development in regions most affected by these issues. However, operational costs are expected to remain relatively flat, supported by substantial supplies of corn and soybeans from North America and Brazil.
"The most critical risks for the outlook are a potential La Niña year and crop-growing developments in Europe," Mulder noted.
Trade maintains a strong momentum despite rising volatility
Global poultry trade is projected to remain strong but will be influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing avian influenza pressures. The focus on food and resource security, local economies, and changing trade relationships will likely create volatility in trade flows and prices.
"Geopolitical tensions and trade issues will continue to challenge the industry, particularly issues related to policy changes by the new US government, rising tensions between Europe and China, ongoing rerouting of shipments via the southern route due to turmoil in the Middle East, and trade restrictions due to disease challenges," Mulder explained.
