Tight supply, avian influenza push US egg prices higher
Production down, prices up as sector struggles to rebuild
16 April 2025
2 minute read
By: The US egg sector is facing a turbulent start to 2025, with production expected to decline by nearly 1% and prices forecast to remain well above historical averages, according to the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry Outlook.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has once again hit commercial flocks hard. Between October 2024 and February 2025, 44 million table egg layers were culled, tightening supplies just as the holiday season and Easter approached. As of January 1, 2025, the table egg laying flock was down 2% year over year, with further losses likely from ongoing outbreaks.
Total egg production for 2025 is forecast at 8.96 billion dozen—down slightly from 2024. Recovery is expected in the second half of the year, assuming no new disease flare-ups.
Wholesale egg prices are forecast to average $4.44 per dozen in 2025, up sharply from $3.03 in 2024. Early this year, prices surged past $8 per dozen as markets grappled with acute supply shortages. While prices are expected to cool into mid-year, they will likely remain elevated through December due to continued tight supplies and steady demand.
Egg exports are projected to decline 11% to 208 million dozen in 2025, after falling 6% the previous year. High prices and limited availability continue to suppress international shipments. Meanwhile, imports are forecast to rise 7% to 32 million dozen, with most destined for breaking use to ease domestic shortages.
With producers focused on rebuilding flocks and enhancing biosecurity, the sector is bracing for a cautious rebound in the second half of 2025.
