US broiler sector stable but faces export pressure
Lower feed costs, red meat prices support modest growth
15 April 2025
1 minute read
By: US broiler meat production is forecast to rise by 1 percent in 2025, reaching 47.1 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s latest Livestock and Poultry Outlook. The sector continues to recover from early-2024 contractions, buoyed by declining feed costs and firm domestic demand, particularly as beef supplies tighten.
The cost of soybean meal—a key feed input—has trended lower since mid-2024, and the USDA projects the marketing year average at $310 per short ton. This, combined with strong red meat prices, is expected to keep chicken competitive at retail and foodservice counters.
“Broiler production is inching up despite constraints,” the report notes, pointing to a 4 percent year-over-year drop in the layer flock and hatching rates that are still climbing back to historical norms.
Export markets, however, remain a sore spot. US broiler exports fell 7% in 2024 and are expected to decline another 2% this year, to 6.61 billion pounds. Price competition from Brazil—the world’s largest broiler exporter—continues to erode US market share in countries like the Philippines, Taiwan and Guatemala.
Despite these global headwinds, domestic pricing is expected to hold. The national composite wholesale broiler price is projected to average $1.32 per pound in 2025, up slightly from $1.29 in 2024. Higher beef prices and constrained red meat supplies are likely to underpin continued demand for chicken at home.
