US turkey sector contracts amid HPAI, weak demand
Lower production expected despite slight price recovery
15 April 2025
2 minute read
By: The US turkey sector is poised for another challenging year, with production forecast to drop 3% in 2025 to 4.97 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry Outlook.
Ongoing impacts from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and muted consumer demand continue to weigh heavily on the industry.
The latest data show flock depopulations in late 2024 and early 2025 are curbing output just as producers face lacklustre market conditions. Net placements were particularly low during the spring and summer of 2024, setting the stage for reduced holiday-season availability.
Eggs in incubators on January 1, 2025 were down 1% from the previous year and 9% lower than two years prior, signalling further supply constraints, especially in the first half of the year.
Despite the decline in volume, prices are beginning to recover. The wholesale hen price is forecast to average 97 cents per pound in 2025—up 3% from 2024, when prices tumbled 33% year over year.
“While still well below pandemic-era highs, firmer prices could offer some relief for producers,” the USDA noted.
Exports, meanwhile, are projected to fall 4% to 465 million pounds, driven by tighter supplies and reduced price competitiveness. Mexico, which accounted for three-quarters of US turkey exports in 2024, remains the sector’s key trading partner.
With profitability under pressure and biosecurity risks persisting, the turkey industry enters 2025 in a cautious stance, balancing flock recovery with uncertain consumer and export demand.
